Jose Garcia writes from the wonderful Meme Therapy, where he’s conducting another brain parade, this one asking science fiction writers and scientists a straightforward question: “Do you think it likely that the first discovery of extraterrestrial life will be made by a rover?” The answers to all of Jose’s brain parade questions are stimulating and reflect a wide variety of perspectives, from Robert Zubrin’s unqualified “No. It will be made by human explorers operating on the surface of Mars,” to writer Peter Watts’ call for widening the search from planets to comets and molecular dust clouds.

Centauri Dreams‘ guess is that extraterrestrial life may well exist deep within the Martian soil, but the first conclusive proof of life beyond Earth will come by rover and in a more exotic place, such as one of the Galilean moons of Jupiter or, if we want to get truly exotic, in the bizarre deep freeze of Titan. Because this is by nature guesswork, I’m just playing a hunch that Mars is going to be a tougher nut to crack in astrobiological terms than we think. Expect the unexpected, since virtually every aspect of space exploration (and especially the hunt for exoplanets) has produced one jaw-dropping surprise after another.

And since we’re shooting the breeze here (and although it has nothing to do with rovers), the real Centauri Dreams hunch is that life is all but ubiquitous in the galaxy, but intelligent life vanishingly rare. I remain a SETI advocate despite this because I hope to be proven wrong.