Put a rocky, Earth-sized planet in the habitable zone of a Sun-like star, and good things should happen. At least, that seems to be the consensus, and since there are evidently billions of such planets in the galaxy, the chances for complex life seem overwhelmingly favorable. But in today’s essay, Centauri Dreams associate editor Alex Tolley looks at a new paper that questions the notion, examining the numerous issues that can affect planetary outcomes. Just how long does a planetary surface remain habitable? Alex not only weighs the paper’s arguments but runs the code that author Toby Tyrrell used as he examined temperature feedbacks in his work. Read on for what may be a gut-check for astrobiological optimists.

by Alex Tolley

The usual course of the discussion about planet habitability assumes that the planet is in the habitable zone (HZ), probably in the continuously habitable zone (CHZ). The determination if the planet is inhabitable concerns the necessary composition and pressure of the atmosphere to maintain a surface temperature able to support liquid water. As stars usually increase their luminosity over time, we see charts like the one below for Earth showing the calculated range of average surface temperature. Atmospheric pressure and composition can be modified to determine the inner and outer edges of the HZ or CHZ.

Image: Life on an exoplanet in a globular cluster. Credit: David Hardy (Astroart.org).

However, these charts say nothing about the various factors that may upset the stability of the climate, especially the geological carbon cycle, where volcanic outgassing of carbon dioxide (CO2) is approximately balanced by weathering of rocks to ultimately sequester carbon as carbonate rocks such as limestone. Imbalances can create significant changes in greenhouse gas (GHG) composition of the atmosphere with temperature impacts [4].

Figure 1. Possible bounds of Earth surface temperature over 4.5 By of changing solar output and the impact of atmosphere. The early Earth would have required a different energy trapping atmosphere to maintain an inhabitable temperature during its early history to prevent freezing. Continued increase in solar luminosity will render the surface too hot for life even with no atmospheric trapping of the sun’s heat. Source: Kasting 1988 [3]

We have much evidence of widely fluctuating average surface temperatures for the Earth, from a possibly hot Archaean eon, several local temperature maximums including the end of the “Snowball Earth”, the Permian/Triassic extinction, and the Eocene thermal maximum. Earth has also cooled, most notably during the “Snowball Earth” period that lasted millions of years and several extreme glaciations over its history.

Before even considering the many other possible factors that may preclude an inhabitable planet, there is a question of just how stable are planetary surface temperatures, especially when subjected to shocks due to excess CO2 emissions from very active volcanism, or conversely from excess weathering depleting the atmospheric CO2 pressure.

The Journal Paper

A new paper [1] by Prof. Toby Tyrrell looks at this question in a very different way. He posits that for the many planetary types and conditions in the galaxy, we should assume a wide variety of possible temperature feedbacks and simulate the average surface temperature of a planet over a long period of geologic time (3.0 By) to simulate how frequently planets could continuously maintain an inhabitable surface temperature throughout this period.

Tyrrell on randomly configured feedbacks:

“It is assumed that there is no inherent bias in the climate systems of planets as a whole towards either negative (stabilising) or positive (destabilising) feedbacks. In other words, it is assumed here that the feedback systems of planets are the end result of a set of processes which do not in aggregate contain any overall inherent predisposition either towards or against habitability.”

His model is very simple. He assumes a randomly chosen number of feedback values (change in temperature over time for a specified temperature) within an inhabitable temperature range. Figure 2 below shows one example of the model showing random feedbacks, calculated temperature attractors, runaway temperature zones, and a time course of temperature impacted by random temperature perturbations. The values for temperatures between each feedback node are interpolated from the 2 surrounding nodes. If the feedback slope is negative and if the 2 points straddle a 0 feedback, the model calculates a temperature attractor at that point, so that temperatures between the 2 feedback nodes tend to stabilize the temperature at the attractor position.

If, however, the slope is positive, the temperature will be destabilized and driven towards the upper node if above the 0 feedback level, and conversely to the lower node if below the 0 level. He sets a minimum (-10C) and maximum(60C) surface temperature range that if the calculated temperature extends beyond those boundary temperatures or is in feedback that will lead to runaway feedback to either a very low or very high temperature, the model assumes the planet is no longer habitable on the surface. The model adds 2 other important elements. Firstly there is a long-term forcing (e.g. increased solar output), which for the Earth is a positive one as the sun continues to increase its output over time. The second is to introduce small, medium, and large temperature perturbations (i.e. shocks) that introduce noise into the model and can flip the climate between attractor temperatures and also into runaway temperature conditions where the feedbacks positively reinforce the temperature change. Figure 2 below is extracted from the paper to indicate an example. [Annotations added for clarity.]

Figure 2. Extracted from the Tyrrell paper and annotated. The left chart shows 9 randomly created feedbacks. Where 2 adjacent feedbacks are connected by a negative slope and cross the zero feedback line, a temperature attractor is created, in this example there are 2 attractors. At either end are zones where the temperature would cause a runaway increase or decrease in temperature and these are indicated by grayed areas. The chart also indicates that over the long term, there is a negative forcing that reduces the average temperature over time. The right-hand chart shows the temperature over time. The 2 attractors are shown, as is the starting temperature [blue square]. The various perturbations are indicated both in time and size by the red triangles below the chart axis. The gray bands show the runaway temperature conditions and the black bands the start of uninhabitable conditions. The 500 My display shows the temperature flipping between the 2 attractors, with each flip due to larger temperature perturbations. A few temperature perturbations approach but do not cross into the runaway temperature zones.

With the parameters he uses, the model demonstrates that with repeated runs, only a few percent of planet runs enjoy a 3 billion year period where surface temperatures stay within the inhabitable temperature range. Once the range is exited, surface life ends and the planet becomes lifeless on the surface.

Figure 3 shows how rarely planets can maintain inhabitable conditions over the entire 3 billion year time period.

Figure 3. The probability of a planet always surviving as inhabitable over 3 billion years over several runs with the same feedback conditions but with no temperature perturbations and with random temperature perturbations. The gray (H1 – chance alone) hypothesis is pure random perturbations withwout feedbacks and the red (H2 – mechanism alone) – feedbacks but without large perturbations – are compared with the simulation results. The most important result is that a planet that can maintain surface inhabitable conditions is quite rare.


“The initial prospects for Earth staying habitable could have been poor. If so, this suggests that elsewhere in the Universe there are Earth-like planets which had similar initial prospects but which, due to chance events, at one point became too hot or too cold and consequently lost the life upon them. As techniques to investigate exoplanets improve and what seem at first to be ‘twin Earths’ are discovered and analysed, it seems likely that most will be found to be uninhabitable.”

His conclusion is ominous for astrobiologists. Even if we discover many planets that are in the HZ, and confirm that their atmospheres could support an inhabitable surface, those planets are either frozen or too hot to allow life to exist on the surface. The vast majority of apparently suitable worlds will prove lifeless and appear as if abiogenesis (or even panspermia) has failed to ignite an evolutionary progression to complex life and even possibly technological civilization.

This conclusion is enough to dampen any astrobiologist’s day and suggests that the search for biosignatures may be as disappointing as the results of SETI.

While the paper shows the results using the values of the published model and code, the supplementary information includes a considerable analysis of the model, for example, extending the inhabitable range, and several other parameters. However, the broad conclusion remains robust. Maintaining an inhabitable temperature over 3 billion years is unlikely.

Tyrrell acknowledges the simplicity of his approach and suggested in a recent SETI Institute webinar that he hopes to apply his approach with a more sophisticated planetary climate model to determine if his findings hold up.

Given the proxy indications of Earth’s paleotemperatures (see figure 4 below) showing wide ranges and some close misses to survival shown by the mass extinctions, why did Earth life survive? Tyrrell argues that the anthropic principle has to be invoked. Just as the universe we live in needs the exact constants for life and we couldn’t be in any universe without those conditions, so we technological humans cannot investigate unless the Earth had maintained a continuous inhabitable surface temperature.

A Critique

Figure 4 below shows the estimated temperature fluctuations in the paleotemperature proxy data. Have we just been lucky that there do not appear to be any clear multiple attractor temperatures?

Figure 4. A chart of paleotemperature of Earth. For 3 billion years Earth’s average surface temperature has fluctuated in a range of less than 30C.

An obvious question is whether his model reflects reality. The random nature of the feedbacks coupled with the temperature perturbations might lead to many situations where even small temperature perturbations will tip the surface temperature beyond the acceptable range. As we can see from Figure 2, the upper-temperature attractor is within 10C of a runaway temperature increase, making habitability susceptible to even relatively small temperature perturbations.

Fortunately, the model code has been placed online and the source code available to experiment with.

Observing several runs it became clear that the model would quickly fail if the current temperature at an attractor temperature was near the boundary range so that even a modest temperature perturbation could push the temperature outside the range. How serious was this effect?

Figure 5. The most benign model. The 2 feedbacks are at the temperature range extremes and result in an attractor at 25C that is maintained across the temperature range. The long-term temperature forcing is set to 0. Only the infrequent large temperature perturbations, average size 32C are operative.

I created an experiment (also suggested at bottom of page 4 of the paper) where the planet would always have the most favorable conditions for a stable surface temperature. Just 2 feedbacks were created at each end of the range, with the calculated attractor in the middle of the range at 25 C, so that any perturbation would have to exceed 35C in either direction to exit the inhabitable conditions. I removed the long-term feedback too. I also removed both the small and medium-sized perturbations, leaving just the rare, large perturbations. The probability of timing and size of the perturbations was left as per the model. By starting the planet’s temperature at the attractor, the inhabitable conditions would be maintained at the attractor temperature unless a random large perturbation exceeded the 35C size.

The results for different perturbation probabilities are shown in figure 6. The average survival time of planetary runs and the %age survival plotted against perturbation probability demonstrate what might be intuitively guessed. Tyrrell’s purely mechanistic run (H2) with optimal feedback and no perturbations had all planet runs complete the 3 By survival. This is consistent with figure 6 where expected large perturbations = 0.

Figure 6. Survival times and %age survival of planets without an attractor and with a single attractor at 25C. With an attractor, survival times are greatly enhanced, especially as the expected number of perturbations increases.

Inspection of the model’s large temperature perturbation distribution indicated that the average size was 32C with a standard deviation of 16C. For the stable model planet I was testing, the temperature would be perturbed beyond either range boundary by a value of just 0.25 standard deviations, i.e. that about 40% of all randomly selected sample perturbations would trigger a surface temperature outside the inhabitable range. When that happened depended on the random timing and would dictate the survival time of inhabitable temperatures. As a control to determine the frequency of perturbations, a model world was created with no attractor temperature so that it sat on a temperature knife edge. Any perturbation would cause runaway heating or cooling. The impact of the lack of the stabilizing temperature attractor on survival time and average % of planets surviving for 3 By is evident.

Given the importance of the large perturbations, just how reasonable are the size of the perturbations and the maximum inhabitable temperature range.?

It is hypothesized that the “Snowball Earth” temperature ranged from deepest glaciation to a temperature maximum could have been as high as 100C (-50C to 50C). The chart of paleotemperature suggests for over the last few billion years an average surface temperature range of 26C (-10C to16C). That the Cryogenian glaciation period encompassing the “Snowball Earth” could have had a surface temperature of -50C, yet life quickly reemerged more vigorous than ever (the Cambrian “explosion”) after the glaciers melted, suggests that the lower temperature bound of -10C may be too conservative. As for the upper bound, it has been suggested that the Archaean eon may have had surface water temperatures of 70-80C. While most complex life has an effective upper limit of 60C, extremophiles have been found at 122C. For complex life, while the resilient tardigrades can withstand extreme temperatures for short periods, the inhabitable surface range is reasonable for complex life. However, we should bear in mind that ecological refugia can provide safety for complex life, for example around undersea vents to resist freezing, and migration to the poles to escape the equatorial temperatures and hence live in regimes that remain below the average surface temperature.

These points were acknowledged in the Tyrrell paper that discussed the limitations and caveats to the model.


Geographical variability implies that more extreme average global surface temperatures might be required to force extinction everywhere. Microbial life can potentially survive periods of inhospitable surface conditions within refuges, such as in subsurface rocks or deep in an ice-covered ocean at hydrothermal vents, emerging later to recolonise the surface; evidence from Neoproterozoic Snowball Earth events suggests however that eukaryotic photosynthetic algae persisted through the events and therefore that surface habitability was maintained at some locations. Other environmental conditions can affect habitability, but only temperature (and therefore water availability) are considered here.

Dynamic models are often unstable without tuning. The simplest example is Wolfram’s linear cellular automata with 3 cell states determining the next cell state. With just 8 possible rules for the 3 state combinations, there are 256 combinations of rules, yet just 6 (2.3%) do not converge on static states. The random feedback combinations may reflect a similar outcome, but where the majority of conditions will easily slip out of the inhabitable temperature range, rather than the benign experimental planet conditions I tested.


Dr. Malcolm (Jurassic Park):

“Life Finds a Way”

Given the results from my experiment with the optimal feedbacks for a stable climate, if feedbacks are more stabilizing on average than the hypothesized randomly assigned feedbacks, planets with inhabited surfaces possibly may not be quite as rare as the author’s model indicates. Tyrrell notes that average surface temperatures hide the variability of temperatures and exclude possible refugia, such as undersea hot vents, and lithosphere life warmed by the planet’s core. If we can accept that the Earth was populated by unicellular bacteria and eukaryotes for most of its history, and that the Earth’s complex biota may have even taken a major loss during the Cryogenian period, it seems likely that inhabitable worlds will have some sort of life assuming abiogenesis is easily achievable. While our climate history may be a lucky chance, history does not seem to indicate some attractor temperatures, but rather a single attractor that is subject to GHG source and sink imbalances that last for some time. The hypothesized extreme volcanism that ended the Permian resulted in the greatest extinction event in the fossil record and lasted for 2 million years. Our current fossil fuel burning that is increasing the atmospheric CO2 levels while very much like a temperature shock is not believed to be able to cause a runaway heating as happened on Venus. However, it is suggested that sometime in the next billion years, the Earth’s atmosphere will need to have no CO2 to stay habitable. Well before then, autotrophs will not be able to fix carbon and the complex life biosphere will collapse.

Once life starts, it is tenacious. A reset back to extremophiles may well be recoverable given time allowing new complex life forms to emerge under the right conditions and genetic “accidents”. However, there may be many more possible wrinkles to the sustainability of habitability, and eventually, surface life may be unable to survive. For subsurface life, the story may be very different. The lithospheric life might survive all other life until our sun destroys Earth billions of years in the future.

It would be interesting to modify the model so that rather than stopping when the temperature is outside the range, that the instances of these periods are recorded as possible reset conditions for refuge (e.g. lithosphillic) life to restart the evolutionary process rather than assuming the planet is “sterile”.

Time will tell when astrophysicists have cataloged and characterized a statistically useful sample of Earth-like worlds in the HZ that can test the model hypothesis of rare survival of surface inhabitablity over billions of years.


1. Tyrrell, Toby. “Chance Played a Role in Determining Whether Earth Stayed Habitable.” Communications Earth & Environment, vol. 1, no. 1, (2020), doi:10.1038/s43247-020-00057-8.

2. Ibid Supplementary Information

3. Kasting, James, et al “How Climate Evolved on the Terrestrial Planets”, Scientific American, (1988)

4. Berner, R. A. & Caldeira, K. “The need for mass balance and feedback in the geochemical carbon cycle”. Geology 25, 955-956 (1997).