We may not have images of terrestrial planets around another star yet, but many things can be learned about such worlds by computer simulation. A team of British astronomers, for example, has examined known exoplanetary systems in hopes of isolating those in which Earth-like worlds could exist in stable and habitable orbits. This is tricky business, because the massive planets present in almost every exoplanetary system we know about could disrupt such orbits long before life might have a chance to form on any worlds there.

It’s also tricky because to determine which systems could have life-bearing planets requires you to figure out the location of the habitable zone in each. Researchers Barrie Jones, Nick Sleep and David Underwood (Open University, Milton Keynes, UK) here use the classical definition of habitable zone: the distances from a star where water at the surface of an Earth-like planet would be in liquid form. Not surprisingly, they find that the question of planetary migration looms large in their analysis.

If a gas giant orbits well inside the habitable zone around a given star, and if that planet has reached its position by migration through the habitable zone, then Earth-like worlds may be far less common than would otherwise be the case. Here’s a good precis of research on the migration question, as presented in the UK team’s discussion of why habitable planets, depending upon the effects of migration, might be found in a mere 7 percent of the systems surveyed. From the paper:

The decrease to 7% demonstrates the importance of understanding how readily or rarely at least one ‘Earth’ can form in the HZ after a giant planet has migrated through it. This urgent question has received some attention. Formation in 47 Ursae Majoris has been examined by Laughlin et al. (2002). They have shown that Earth-mass planets could form within about 0.7 AU of the star, which is interior to the HZ, and possibly a bit further out in the inner HZ. It is the proximity of the inner giant planet to the HZs that hinders formation, by stirring up the orbits of the planetesimals and planetary embryos. Armitage (2003) concluded that post-migration formation of ‘Earths’ might be unlikely, though he concentrated on the effect of giant migration on planet-forming dust rather than on planetesimals and planetary embryos. On the other hand, Mandell and Sigurdsson (2003) have shown that when the HZ is traversed by a giant planet, a significant fraction of any pre-formed terrestrial planets could survive, eventually returning to circular orbits fairly close to their original
positions. An optimistic outcome has also been obtained by Fogg and Nelson (2005), who have shown that post-migration formation of ‘Earth’ from planetesimals and planetary embryos is fairly likely. Fogg and Nelson’s work is the most comprehensive to date, and gives cause for optimism…

That the migration issue is the hinge of this study is shown in the authors’ summary. They find that of the 152 known exoplanetary systems (as of 18 April 2006), 60 percent offer safe habitable zone orbits for Earth-like planets. A second analysis of 143 of these systems shows that 50 percent would have provided sustainable orbits in the habitable zone for at least a billion years. So the question of how giant planets got closer to their stars than the habitable zone becomes crucial. And if migration through the habitable zone rules out the formation of Earth-like worlds, we are left with that discouraging 7 percent number instead of the much more robust 60 percent.

Centauri Dreams‘ take: The effects of migration will merit much future work, but may become somewhat less pressing if we find that ‘hot Jupiters’ are the exception rather than the rule. Right now the observational bias is built into our methods; massive planets close to their stars are more readily detectible. We have yet to establish any sort of workable ‘norms’ for solar system formation against which to measure such systems, but migration may turn out to be of less interest if we start routinely identifying systems where the gas giants are found well outside the habitable zone.

The paper is Barrie, Sleep and Underwood, “Habitability of known exoplanetary systems based on measured stellar properties,” now accepted for publication in The Astrophysical Journal and available here.