Noted first on Sentient Developments, this interesting video of Michio Kaku discussing the Kardashev scale and where we fit into it. Kaku believes we are living at the critical time when our Type 0 civilization becomes a Type 1. What can happen next gets dicey indeed, as the video makes clear, and it may well be that cultures playing with nuclear weaponry have scant chance of survival, never reaching the point where, as Type 1, they control the processes of their own world and build toward Type 2, the essentially indestructible species that manages all the power of its Sun.
It’s intriguing to speculate on how Kubrick and Clarke’s 2001: A Space Odyssey would have been received had the initial five minutes, in which scientists discussed the robotic seeding of the galaxy, been left in the film. As it was, the mysticism and rich symbolism of the ending left many scratching their heads even while appreciating the grandeur of the story. But Frank Tipler and others have shown long ago that it wouldn’t take that long in absolute terms for self-replicating robots to sweep through an entire galaxy. Where might they have left their beacon?
Tipler believed it would take self-replicating probes a million years to colonize the galaxy, ten million to colonize the Local Group and another hundred million to colonize the entire Virgo Cluster. But perhaps future civilizations would decide not to build such probes, deeming them too dangerous to future life. Carl Sagan and William Newman argued just this point in their paper “The Solipsist Approach to Extraterrestrial Intelligence,” Quarterly Journal of the Royal Astronomical Society 24 (1983), p. 113. The Tipler paper (which prompted the Sagan/Newman rebuttal) is “Extraterrestrial Intelligent Beings Do Not Exist,” Quarterly Journal of the Royal Astronomical Society 21 (1980), pp. 267-81.
I stopped taking Mr. Kaku too seriously when I realized he was leading the protest against the launch of the Cassini probe.
An advanced civilization conducting a large-scale colonization of space may be very naive thinking (but perhaps appropriate to a very young civilization like ours). Like an answer from a small child to a question “What will you do when you’re adult?” could be “I’ll have a Ferrari and eat only candies.” — “What will your civilization do when it becomes highly advanced?” “Colonize the galaxy and build mega structures, of course.”
Advanced life forms may be more different than we can imagine. If they’re common, that would explain the silence.
I felt that the views of that video were too simplistic, particularly the idea that globalization has no drawbacks whatsoever. Then again, you can say only so much in 8 minutes. As for Dr. Tipler, it is my opinion that his personal philosophy overwhelmed his science long ago. The anthropic principle, a tautology at best, an ID argument at worst, has been an albatross for both astrophysics and biology.
The problem with any “self-regulatory” solution to the absence of von Neumann probes (or similar questions) is that it only takes one careless civilisation not to reason as Sagan and Newman did, and there goes the neighbourhood. Seems like the answer would have to be more general than that.
‘robots’. most people then think “metallic humanoids”. Why not ‘organic self-replicating entities.’ virions or cells. if they get out of control, they evolve.
this equates to pangenesis.
things that make you go ‘hmm”.
on another level: kaku’s characterization of terrorism as an attempt to forestall human advance to type-I, is shallow and offensive.
sorry, but this man’s a dick.
Agree with the opinions expressed here of Kaku whom I see as a self-aggrandizing opportunist and ideolog. And yes, Tipler’s ideology totally consumes his publications. I think we can see that scientists, Sagan included, are human and often let their philosophy and ideology dictate their ‘scientific’ pronuncements to the public. It was ever so. Caveat Emptor. Be skeptical of experts.
Does anyone have or know where to find those original
clips of various scientists talking about extraterrestrial
life for the film 2001? Even the text of what they said
would be quite interesting.
The 1965 version of the film script contains original
narration that was thankfully removed in the final
version, but does not contain the ET talk by the
scientists.
http://www.visual-memory.co.uk/amk/doc/0057.html
to everyone above thus far,sent mr kaku an e mail not too long ago and never heard back,well yes,naturally i assumed he was just too busy to deal with an unsolicited e mail from a stanger so i did not attach too much importance to it.but some of the opinions above do make me feel better.all the best, george
Larry, those talks would be an outstanding find if we can locate them. Surely that footage is out there somewhere?
Although I didn’t agree with everything he said, I certainly agreed with him when he said, “Our children and our grandchildren are the most important generation to ever walk the surface of the Earth.” Not sure if terrorists are truly holding us back from type 1, but WMDs are certainly holding us back.
I don’t know much about Kaku. I wasn’t aware that he was involved in protests against the Cassini problem (I assume this was over its radio-isotope generators). I read “The Anthropic Cosmological Principle” (by John Barrow and frank Tipler) when it first came out in 1986, and thought it quite good. However, I was much less impressed with Tipler’s book “The Physics of Immortality”, which came out in 1994. I noticed that he has written another book, something about physics and christianity, when i was in a book store last week. Its highly unlikely I will read this book, as I think Tipler has long since gone off the deep end (much like Fred Hoyle in his later years).
I think Kaku is trying to be the next Segan, in terms of seeking the limelight.
i don’t believe in that theory about level of civilization the way that Michio Kaku say about civilization type II how this civilization extract energy from the star in your planetary system and after go to the next star to reach the next level type III it look like how the locust destroy a farm and go to the next farm.i don’t think that a civilization suvivial for extract energy but by has knowledge to use the energy to interstellar space travel they understand perhaps how control the quantum physcis to comunication fast in interstellar space how they can use gravity to reach the stars i think that it inportant undestand more the physics to be great civilization not use the star energy and to next to destroy we not see evidence of civilization type I,II orIII not because they not exist, but because they have tecnology beyond the mankind know to keep quiet in silence because they know use energy not spend like locust perhaps has better way to extract lot energy from the vacuum.
Carl Sagan at least had a more realistic outlook on using
nuclear propulsion for space. He advocated the Orion nuclear
pulse spacecraft as probably the best use for nuclear bombs
and while he recognized the potential dangers of launching
nuclear powered spacecraft and having them circle Earth like
some old Soviet spysats do, Sagan also recognized the need
for nuclear power in space in such situations as exploring the
worlds beyond Mars, where sunlight is much weaker.
Here is an article Sagan wrote in 1989 on the upcoming launch
of the Galileo probe to Jupiter, which used RTGs for power:
http://www.dartmouth.edu/~chance/course/Syllabi/97Dartmouth/day-6/sagan.html
ljk thank you very interesting. do you think,does anybody here think,that it would be worth while or possible to bring back the orion idea as sagan saw it?might be in my opinion a real fine way for humans to explore the solar system and even realize the possibility of a first star ship down the line! now, in my opinion again…does everybody recall the space craft discovery from 2001 a space odyssey? that is why i think we should build a fleet of new space shuttles.in order to construct a ship like that in orbit and go on from there to as i say,explore our solar system. would,yes,take a long time but very definately also a first step toward the stars! and maybe along the way with the work that would have to be done,the research,all of that would suggest a star ship concept much better than the orion discussed above.was just talking with a friend on another site about say comparing the aircraft of 1917 to those of 2000 just 83 years later. then the spacecraft of 1961 (alan shepherds mercury capsule) to what will be available in 2044!my point is the exploration of our solar system is guaranteed to take a long time no matter how we go about it,almost certainly more than my hypotetical 83 years! so by then we will probably have such advancements that even sagan might not care to use the orion concept any longer! the makings of a first star ship should,by then, be assured! respectfully to all your friend george ps glad to hear anybodies ideas on this if you care to write them up! again,thank you george
The problem with talk of Kardushev scales and the Fermi Paradox is that it constrains the search for extraterrestrial intelligence to technologically developed species. I realize that those are the civilizations that we have the ability to look for, but I think we need to ask how likely it is that intelligence leads to advanced technology (ie capable of spaceflight and interstellar communications, and I expect we’ll find the answer is “rarely”. There were a very specific set of historical and geographical accidents that led to the development of “high” technology on this planet, which could just as easily never have happened – see Guns Germs and Steel by Jared Diamond. Whether these accidents occur on other worlds where intelligent life exists is something that can only be speculated upon, but our own history suggests that intelligence does not necessarily – or even readily – lead to technological sophistication.
Whoa, Chris, that’s too interesting not to follow up on. Tell me more about the Jared Diamond book, please.
It’s a great read. Basically Diamond traces the history of Western technological development from the point of view of geographical and environmental determinism – in an attempt to explain why some cultures (namely, ours) developed advanced technology – while others, of equal or greater sophistication, did not. He also has another excellent book called “Collapse: How Civilizations Choose to Fail”.
Some people find that Diamond’s emphasis on historical determinism tends to unrealistically minimize the role of the individual in shaping technological development – but I think that would be considered part of Diamond’s thesis: that the individual genius to which we attribute the rise of western technology was in fact only made possible by a favorable and entirely arbitrary confluence of environmental factors. In any case, I definitely recommend Guns Germs and Steel. And please, anyone feel free to correct me if I’m oversimplifying Diamond’s case!
Germs and Steels is a pivotal book, which gives a persuasive, multi-faceted explanation about why civilizations arose where they did on earth and how this early inequality led to some dominating others.
Regarding alien civilizations and their (re)actions, we are still largely operating on the assumption they will resemble us physically, emotionally and intellectually. The only likelihood (not certainty) is that they will be based on carbon. All other bets are off. If the 0.01% genetic difference that separates us from bonobos and chimpanzees has led to such divergent outcomes, I can barely imagine how independently derived lifeforms will look and act.
Hi All
Diamond’s books and Chris’s comment might hold one key to the puzzle – technological civilisations aren’t inevitably world transforming. I suspect if we don’t become a multi-planet species then either super-volcanoes, impactors and/or resource depletion will be our extinction.
Consider…
Toba’s eruption almost wiped out our specific species, Homo sapiens, some 72,000 years ago. If it had then the Neanderthals in Europe and the Erectoids in Indonesia would’ve inherited the Earth – would they have survived much longer? The latest evidence indicates the Neanderthals were driven to extinction or assimilation by the last Glacial Maximum. And the Erects vanished at roughly the same time. Perhaps the Hobbits would’ve inherited the Earth? Or perhaps the volcano 12,000 years ago got them all.
The lesson is that human survival is radically contigent. I just downloaded some interesting papers on catastrophe in mythology – a quick browse reveals impact tsunamis, volcanism, and earthquakes have been a feature of the collective experience of all humanity’s tribes. There have been many “Noahs” and “Deucalions” to preserve the race, time and time again. Luck? Or are we just too tough?
Diamond’s GG&S book is a great read. I don’t agree with all of it, but I do agree that Western civ was greatly aided by fortuitous geography and resultant flora and fauna as he contends. Just one more arguement on how unlikely a technological civilization may be. My bet is 0 other civs in the Local Group and Virgo Cloud. I also think that water ocean planets with land area are also few.
I’m with Athena on the notion that we’ll not be seeing alien life forms that begin to resemble what we know or act in ways we immediately understand. The trick in encountering an alien intelligence may, in fact, be in being able to recognize it in the first place, an idea that Jacob Bronowski often cited.
Hi All
Point of fact: genetically the Pan species and Homo differ by about 1.5% in their exons and maybe about 5% in total genomic material. Many of our proteins are identical in actual amino acid sequence, differing by a few base pairs in the codons. We’re closer together genetically than species of Equus – horses, asses, zebras etc. – and yet we have the arrogance to exclude the chimps from our own genus.
paul just read what you said above and yes indeed!! i can’t tell you for how many years i have already been saying…”we could encounter aliens so alien that they could be standing in this very room and we would’nt notice them” i’ll bet you 5 cents that i first said that sometime back in the 60’s.thank you your friend george
The human brain: Should we upgrade?
We have the fastest growing brain of any animal in history –
but is our cranial growth spurt coming to an end? And with
computer power doubling every 18 months will machines
soon outsmart us, and even one day become our masters?
The long-term trends could be in their favour rather than
ours. Peter Lavelle reports.
http://www.abc.net.au/science/features/brainupgrade/
Michio Kaku on Extraterrestrial Civilizations: “How Advanced
Could They Possibly Be?”
To quote:
Although it is impossible to predict the precise features of such advanced civilizations, their broad outlines can be analyzed using the laws of physics. No matter how many millions of years separate us from them, they still must obey the iron laws of physics, which are now advanced enough to explain everything from sub-atomic particles to the large-scale structure of the universe, through a staggering 43 orders of magnitude.
…
Physicist Freeman Dyson of the Institute for Advanced Study estimates that, within 200 years or so, we should attain Type I status – a truly planetary one, which has mastered most forms of planetary energy. Type 1 energy output may be on the order of thousands to millions of times our current planetary output.They also have enough energy to alter the course of earthquakes, volcanoes, and build cities on their oceans. In fact, growing at a modest rate of 1% per year, it would take only 3,200 years to reach Type II status, and 5,800 years to reach Type III status.
Full article here:
http://www.dailygalaxy.com/my_weblog/2007/12/michio-kaku-on.html