Centauri Dreams

Today Heath Rezabek continues his investigation of the Vessel proposal, a strategy for preserving the cultural and biological heritage of our species. Based in Austin TX, librarian and futurist Rezabek is concerned with existential risk and ways to manage it. His work has yielded lively discussions in the comments section here, as has that of his collaborator Nick Nielsen, from whom we’ll hear tomorrow. In this essay, Heath moves on to question not only the various forms a Vessel might take, but where and how it could be built. Your thoughts are solicited not only in comments but also through the online survey whose address is given at the end. Previous essays in this series are Deep Time: The Nature of Existential Risk (on the mitigation of Xrisk through long-term archival and learning labs) and Visualizing Vessel (on visualization, design fiction, science fiction prototyping and their application to the Vessel proposal).

by Heath Rezabek

Comments and discussion in the previous installment of this series exploring the concept of Vessel habitats have yielded some unexpected and exciting developments. We have begun to flesh out an expanded conception of the Vessel proposal, in which the role of habitat and community is moved further to the fore, drawing on the ideal of a Vessel settlement as a haven — a word which means both refuge and port. If the Vessel is the core of material preserved, and a Haven is the community or habitat at which it rests, what does that haven look like? If actual ships some day departed from a Vessel Haven, as an exemplar colony of humankind dedicated to the cultivation of humanity (or even transhumanity’s) enduring heritage… What would that Haven be like?

The enthusiasm expressed regarding the possibility of building an interactive simulation or exploration game around the idea of exploring a Vessel installation has led the development team to begin exploring that very possibility, with Unity 3D as our current environment of interest.

In response to the insistent but welcomed critique that Vessel’s early visualizations were too abstract, remote, and alien, we have begun a deep exploration of visual patterns that more fully reflect humanity, and that tap into a more expressive and humane architectural language.

At this stage we are gathering examples that inspire us; some are from games, some from science-fiction or speculative art, some from works of real-world architecture. To peek in on this visual sounding board at any time, (or to submit images that you feel project and reflect a reaching-forth of our nature), feel free to check out http://vesselhaven.tumblr.com).

More on these developments in future installments.

Resilient Future Habitats and Long Term Archives: Towards a Vessel Pattern Language

One of the pivotal points in the development of the Vessel proposal was a re-reading of the section on The Future of Mankind in Peter Ulmschneider’s Intelligent Life in the Universe (p.169-204). My edition is older, and I had read this section before, but often key facets of a solution are not clearly visible before a supporting framework has been perceived.

In this section, Ulmschneider muses on our prospects over the near and long term, but it was his thoughts on the role of asteroids which most directly informed the Vessel proposal. He writes:

“While the moon and perhaps Mars are expected to play important roles in the human settlement of space, it is the much smaller asteroids with their huge mineral resources that will have by far the largest potential significance for the future of mankind. (p.175) … As the human mind opens up to the limitless possibilities and opportunities of living in space, a great diversification of human society can be envisioned. Unlike Earth, where limited resources together with economical and geographical factors do not permit the maintenance of in permeable boundaries between nations, space colonies could develop into fully self-sufficient statehoods, which might individually regulate their physical contact and communication with Earth and other space colonies, and thus develop their own independent cultures and ways of life. As a huge number of asteroids, moons, Kuiper belt objects, and comets awake exploitation, territorial behavior among these nations would be impractical, unnecessary, and unreasonable. Ultimately, this might lead to an unimaginable diversity of cultures and lifestyles of mankind. This cultural diversity, and the spread of mankind over the entire solar system, would be the best insurance against any fatal catastrophe in the future of rising from external and internal threats.” (p.187) [1]

If an asteroid could be surrounded by a shell-like structure — perhaps a geodesic membrane, using the irregular mass of the asteroid to supply material for construction and infill to shape the mass towards roundness — then one could conceive of small worlds as a technical possibility.

The train of thought which led from asteroid-worlds to the Vessel proposal ran like this: Naturally, this kind of asteroforming (?) effort would take time, and time is not guaranteed. We have not yet solved the puzzles of closed-loop ecosystems. The moon is far closer, and its conditions closer to those on an asteroid than Earth’s are. Yet consider the Earth: even our most extreme locations would provide wonderfully forgiving environments for experiments in large-scale enclosure, with the added benefit of carving out limited spaces where we could strive more effectively to meet key challenges on Earth. And from there, the step to proposing archival and learning facilities such as Vessel habitats is a simple realization of priorities: Preserve what we have been and done so far, as an irreplaceable resource for the future and an inspiration for the present.

This train of thought yields multiple solutions to anticipated problems, and none of these solutions need be lost if they can be articulated. Let’s name some of these:

• Asteroid Enclosures (Though he did not focus on asteroids, thinking them too irregular in shape, at Starship Congress 2013 Ken Roy referred to this strategy as Shell Worlds.)
• Lunar Enclosures
• Earthbound Enclosures

A theme arising through these approaches to Vessel habitat design is that of installation placement or positioning. Once we have determined to encourage the creation of many different instances as a strategy for resilience (each with its own unique qualities), it is a clear step to consider which sites would be ideal, or which sites would take priority if time were limited and placement were triaged. We have already mentioned the asteroid belt, and the moon, and our extreme environments — perhaps Antarctica, or a seaborne instance at the arctic circle. Some of these sites could be located by informed and determined seekers; others perhaps would be carefully hidden.

In correspondence, Lt. Col. Peter Garrettson recommended several potential positions, including the Lunar South Pole and the L5 Lagrange point. He also noted that having a Vessel facility housed within a solar power transmitting satellite in geosynchronous orbit, or positioned between two or more of them in an orbital array, could be a useful arrangement. This raises the possibility of any Vessel sited within a populated region to have at least one mirror directly above it, in GEO, providing it with supplemental power. Naturally, since the positions of these GEO Vessels would be clear, concealed mirror sites would also be needed.

If we were to name some of these solutions, we might yield:

• Distributed Sites
• Redundant Positioning

…with subtypes including:

• L5 Point
• GEO Positioning
• Lunar Dark Side
• Lunar South Pole

… and so on.

Many more of these key positions could be envisioned. (In fact, as an exercise, we will try to do just that. See the end of this article for way to provide thoughts on where mission-critical caches of Earth-originating life’s traces might be placed.)

Another class of potential problem is that of power security. Designing a Vessel Haven or complex to operate independently of any surrounding infrastructure could help to mitigate risks to a Vessel Haven from large-scale solar events or other unforeseen circumstances. Dr. Daniel Sheehan, of USD, notes in correspondence the many ways that hardening a Vessel installation’s power system could be accomplished:

“If one has access to a space weather forecast, then vulnerable elements can be disconnected before a storm.” … “If the power grid is small, then the Faraday induction due to time changing magnetic fields can be minimized. If transformers and other devices have surge protection, this would add safety. If one got away from grid systems entirely and went with local power generation, e.g. small electric generators or, better yet, heat recyclers, then there should be no problem. Solar events are really only problematic for large-scale electrical grids. The bottom line: your Vessel installation could be easily hardened against flare events.”

We can name some of these strategies thusly:

• Independent Power Infrastructure
• Dedicated Power
• GEO Beamed Solar
• Forecasting Downtime
• Heat Cycling

Once a design solution is named and detailed such that it can be reapplied in novel ways, it can be called a Design Pattern. If all of these design patterns are developed to reinforce one-another, together they form what is called a Pattern Language.

These two concepts come to us from the fields of architecture, computer science, and design. Originating with an architectural pattern language expressed by Christopher Alexander in 1977 (see his book A Pattern Language), this approach requires that a design solution include a few key elements:

– A concise name or title which expresses clearly the design solution it strives to implement.

– The original problem statement or design challenge, articulated concisely beneath that title.

– Context, research and insights into the design challenge and the ways they suggest their solution.

– The full design pattern, articulated concisely.

– (Ideally) the design pattern is flanked by a listing of those larger patterns which help to shape it (at top), and those smaller patterns which it helps to shape (at bottom).

Developing a Unified Design Pattern Language for the Vessel project is one of our key goals for 2014. This pattern language will ideally span a range of disciplines, from architecture to systems design. Because the approach has been successfully applied across fields for decades, developing a cross-disciplinary pattern language for Vessel design should prove quite possible. If the virtual simulation of various Vessel Haven architectures proceeds well, these virtual spaces may become embodiments of the pattern language being built, like a living database that can be experienced also as an interactive space.

And, of course, all of these lessons should be applicable to other complex design tasks along the road towards an interstellar civilization.

Determining the core patterns which would help form a Vessel Haven is an ongoing process. As a first small test of crowd input, we present an opportunity to help explore one of these design factors: That of location.

An archive of Earth’s culture, science, and biodiversity could take many forms, but one question is that of where to position such facilities, and there are many possibilities. At the following link, you can help shape those design possibilities by submitting locales or positions which come to mind, while also prioritizing the existing ones as more or less preferable. Imagine that resources and motivation were no issue, and that the means existed right now to build a vast network of Vessel archives and havens. Where would they go and which would come first?

Examples of possible Vessel locales include Arctic Circle, L5, or Lunar South Pole. When listing locations in cities and populated areas, the assumption will always be that these are mirror facilities, not the sole versions of those facilities, for the sake of resilience. So, examples of populous locales might include New York (Mirror), London (Mirror), and Geneva (Mirror).

There are many more possibilities to be explored. Please give it a try! You may add as many ideas as you like, you may vote as many times as you wish, and the survey never ends: simply stop when you’re done, and feel free to [View Results] at any time:

http://www.allourideas.org/vessel-positioning-2013

As always, questions and comments are welcomed.

References

[1] Peter Ulmschneider, P. Intelligent Life in the Universe (Springer-Verlag, 2004).

[2] Alexander, C., Ishikawa, S. & Silverstein, M. “A Pattern Language: Towns, Buildings, Construction,” (CES Center for Environmental Structure) (Oxford University Press, 1977).

Not long ago I pulled a wonderful 1950 film out of my collection for a long-overdue viewing. I remember 711 Ocean Drive from late night television airings, and when it popped up a few years back on a local cable channel, I made a recording. Edmund O’Brien and Joanne Dru are the key players in this gritty tale about an electronics expert who gets drawn into big-time crime, and the ending, which takes place at the Hoover Dam straddling the Nevada/Arizona border, is simply terrific, with O’Brien taking the fall after his shady dealings have been exposed.

Image: On the run at the Hoover Dam in Joseph Newman’s 711 Ocean Drive.

Titanic forces, vast engineering, gunplay in the desert, all artfully directed by Joseph M. Newman — what more could you want? And now, thanks to Les Johnson, I connect Hoover Dam not only with a film noir classic but with long-term thinking and starflight. Johnson, speaking in his role as a science writer with deep connections to science fiction, told the recent Eve Online conference in Las Vegas that we as a species need to think big and think long if we are to realize our interstellar dreams. Hoover Dam was the example he used to remind us what it will take to reach the stars.

Deep Time and Future Engineering

I’m always looking for examples of long-term thinking in our history, because as a species, we actually do this pretty well. The Egyptian pyramids are an obvious example, and so are many European cathedrals, some of which were generational in their construction. Some cathedrals went up relatively quickly, to be sure — the main structure at Chartres took a mere 25 years. Others, like Lincoln or Notre-Dame in Paris, were a century or more in the making. The foundation stone at Cologne was laid in 1248 and by the time of the Reformation, the structure remained unfinished, to be completed only in 1880, having become a national project.

Johnson’s invocation of the Hoover Dam is a reminder that not all the great projects were undertaken by civilizations long gone. As a culture, we often seem to think in short time-frames, but we do have the engineering skills to do much better. This Discovery News story quotes Johnson as saying “this dam was built in the 1930s, but the design life of the dam itself (not the power systems) is 2,000 years … that’s foresight! That’s engineering planning. That’s something we shouldn’t be afraid of today when planning for our (species’) future.”

Johnson is well known in these pages not only because of his work at NASA’s Marshall Space Flight Center, but also for his non-NASA activities, which include writing and editing as well as frequent public appearances. Going Interstellar (Baen, 2012), which he edited with science fiction author Jack McDevitt, is a collection of fiction and non-fiction that belongs on your shelf if you share my passion for interstellar flight. And Solar Sails: A Novel Approach to Interplanetary Travel (Copernicus, 2007), which he wrote with Greg Matloff and Giovanni Vulpetti, is a wise introduction to the possibilities and the problems of building sails in space.

Methods like nuclear pulse (think Orion) and antimatter have their advantages, but all require us to carry fuel onboard, and in the case of antimatter, creating enough of that fuel — not to mention storing it — is a major problem. But Johnson can point to sail successes that tell us we’re moving into the era of space applications. The IKAROS sail put Japan into space first with a functioning sail, and NASA’s NanoSail-D deployed a smaller sail in 2011, a year after IKAROS. We now look forward to NASA’s 1200 square meter Sunjammer mission in 2015, even as the Planetary Society continues to develop its Lightsail 1. They’re a long way from interstellar applications, but these missions show us that sails are swiftly climbing the ladder of technological readiness.

Thinking long and thinking big work together. Building the kind of sail that could be laser-boosted into interstellar speeds would mean creating a sail as big as Nevada itself, and Johnson pointed out that the energy output needed for it would equal the energy output of the entire human race today. The point is that the much smaller sail experiments we run today can build toward a future where such structures become possible because of the technologies we’ll create in coming centuries. And if we continue our work with that long-term perspective in mind, we can speak of starflight in ways that do not violate known physics even if they demand huge engineering.

An Icelandic Perspective

The world of gaming seems a good place to stretch our concepts, and in the case of Eve Online, the setting is itself enormous. We’re talking about an MMORPG, which stands for Massively Multiplayer Online Role-Playing Game, and this one has a community of half a million, with a canvas that stretches across the galaxy and is stuffed with star systems ready to be explored.

Eve Online comes out of one of my favorite places, Iceland, and reminds me of travel experiences there over the past thirty years. Back in the 1970s, working on medieval linguistics in grad school, I went to Iceland under the urging of a wonderful professor named George Lane, who was himself fluent in Icelandic and had inspired my own interest in the language. Strolling through the numerous bookshops of Reykjavik, I found that modern editions of the great medieval works, from the sagas to the poetic Eddas, were readily available. The language itself retained much of the medieval structure in ways that most modern tongues do not.

And maybe it was walking around at the site called Thingvellir (Þingvellir) on a foggy late afternoon in August that started teaching me about perspective. It was here that Iceland’s general assembly, the Alþing, first met in about 930 AD, on land that is situated at the boundaries of tectonic plates, a fissure zone that runs through Iceland itself. I walked about a mile from the small hotel and looked back across the valley as a bit of Sun emerged and a rainbow arced across the landscape. It was as if a Viking past reached all the way into the present day, and that day was itself the outgrowth of physical processes that came up out of the Earth’s deep core.

We carry the past with us wherever we walk but the sense of ‘deep time’ that overcame me that day is sometimes lost in the rush to complete day-to-day tasks. I think Les is right that we need to recover it as we look toward a human destiny among the stars. “Thingvellir is a place of echoes,” said a friend when I got back to Reykjavik. She was an English writer who had travelled often there and she knew what she was talking about. We must look back, far back, and then forward into a deep future, building our bridges as if our ancestors were crossing them.