It's no surprise, human nature being what it is, that our early detections of possible life on other worlds through 'biosignatures' are immediately controversial. We have to separate signs of biology from processes that may operate completely outside of our conception of life, abiotic ways to produce the same results. My suspicion is that this situation will persist for decades, claim vs. counter-claim, with heated conference sessions and warring papers. But as Alex Tolley explains in today's essay, even a null result can be valuable. Alex takes us into the realm of Bayesian statistics, where prior beliefs are gradually adjusted as new data come in. We're still dealing with probabilities, but in a fascinating way, uncertainties are gradually being decreased though never eliminated. We're going to be hearing a lot more about these analytical tools as the hunt continues with next generation telescopes. by Alex Tolley Introduction The venerable Drake equation’s early parameters are...
Unusual Skies: Optical Pulses & Celestial Bubbles
Finding unusual things in the sky should no longer astound us. It’s pretty much par for the course these days in astronomy, what with new instrumentation like JWST and the soon to be arriving Extremely Large Telescope family coming online. Recently we’ve had planet-forming disks in the inner reaches of the galaxy and the discovery of a large molecular cloud (Eos by name) surprisingly close to our Sun at the edge of the Local Bubble, about 300 light years out. So I’m intrigued to learn now of Teleios, which appears to be a remnant of a supernova. The name, I’m told, is classical Greek for ‘perfection,’ an apt description for this evidently perfect bubble. An international team led by Miroslav Filipović of Western Sydney University in Australia is behind this work and has begun to analyze what could have produced the lovely object in a paper submitted to Publications of the Astronomical Society of Australia (citation below). Fortunately for us, Teleios glows at radio wavelengths in...
Eddies, Flows and van Gogh: Probing the Interstellar Medium
Science fiction collectors may well look a the two images below and think they’re both Richard Powers' artwork, so prominent on the covers of science fiction titles in the mid-20th Century. Powers worked often for Ballantine in the 1950s and later, always refining the style he first exhibited when doing covers for Doubleday in the 1940s. The top image here is from one of the Doubleday titles, but I think of Powers most for his Ballantine work. His paintings could make a paperback rack into a moody, mysterious experience, a display of artistry that moved from the surreal to the purely abstract. At his best, Powers’ renderings seemed to draw out the wonder of the mind-bending fiction they encased. What we have in the second image, though, is not abstract art but the manifestation of what is being described as “the world’s largest turbulence simulation.” The work comes from a project described in a new paper in Nature Astronomy, where lead author James Beattie describes his...
HD 219134: Fine-Tuning Stellar Music
HD 219134, an orange K-class star in Cassiopeia, is relatively close to the Sun (21 light years) and already known to have at least five planets, two of them being rocky super-Earths that can be tracked transiting their host. We know how significant the transit method has become thanks to the planet harvests of, for example, the Kepler mission and TESS, the Transiting Exoplanet Survey Satellite. It’s interesting to realize now that an entirely different kind of measurement based on stellar vibrations can also yield useful planet information. The work I’m looking at this morning comes out of the Keck Observatory on Mauna Kea (Hawaii), where the Keck Planet Finder (KFP) is being used to track HD 219134’s oscillations. The field of asteroseismology is a window into the interior of a star, allowing scientists to hear the frequencies at which individual stars resonate. That makes it possible to refine our readings on the mass of the star, and just as significantly, to determine its age...
Writing a Social Insect Civilization
Communicating with extraterrestrials isn’t going to be easy, as we’ve learned in science fiction, all the way from John Campbell’s Who Goes There? To Ted Chiang’s Story of Your Life (and the movie Arrival). Indeed, just imagining the kinds of civilizations that might emerge from life utterly unlike what we have on Earth calls for a rare combination of insight and speculative drive. Michael Chorost has been thinking about the problem for over a decade now, and it’s good to see him back in these pages to follow up on a post he wrote in 2015. As I’ve always been interested in how science fiction writers do their worldbuilding, I’m delighted to publish his take on his own experience at the craft. Michael is also the author of the splendid World Wide Mind: The Coming Integration of Humanity, Machines, and the Internet (Free Press, 2011) and Rebuilt: My Journey Back to the Hearing World (Mariner, 2006). by Michael Chorost Ten years ago, Paul Gilster kindly invited me to guest-publish an...
Is Planet Nine Alone in the Outer System?
It was Robert Browning who said “Ah, but a man's reach should exceed his grasp, or what's a heaven for?” A rousing thought, but we don’t always know where we should reach. In terms of space exploration, a distant but feasible target is the solar gravitational lens distance beginning around 550 AU. So far the SGL definitely exceeds our grasp, but solid work in mission design by Slava Turyshev and team is ongoing at the Jet Propulsion Laboratory. Targets need to tantalize, and maybe a target that we hadn’t previously considered is now emerging. Planet Nine, the hypothesized world that may lurk somewhere in our Solar System’s outer reaches, would be such an extraordinary discovery that it would tempt future mission designers in the same way. This is interesting because right now our deep space targets need to be well defined. I love the idea of Interstellar Probe, the craft designed at JHU/APL, but it’s hard to excite the public with the idea of looking back at the heliosphere from the...
New Horizons: Still More from System’s Edge
Even as I’ve been writing about the need to map out regions just outside the Solar System, I’ve learned of a new study that finds (admittedly scant) evidence for a Planet 9 candidate. I won’t get into that one today but save it for the next post, as we need to dispose of the New Horizons news first. But it’s exciting that a region extending from the Kuiper Belt to the inner Oort is increasingly under investigation, and the very ‘walls’ of the plasma bubble within which our system resides are slowly becoming defined. And if we do find Planet 9 some time soon, imagine the focus that will bring to this region. As to New Horizons, there are reasons for building spacecraft that last. The Voyagers may be nearing the end of their lives, but given that they were only thought to be operational for a scant five years, I’d say their 50-year credentials are proven. And because they had the ability to hang in there, they’ve become our first interstellar mission, still reporting data,...
Charting the Interstellar Medium
We don’t talk about the interstellar medium as much as we ought to. After all, if a central goal of our spacefaring is to probe ever further into the cosmos, we’re going to need to understand a lot more about what we’re flying through. The heliosphere is being mapped and we’ve penetrated it with still functioning spacecraft, but out there in what we can call the local interstellar medium (LISM) and beyond, the nature of the journey changes. Get a spacecraft up to a few percent of the speed of light and we have to think about encounters with dust and gas that affect mission design. Early thinking on this was of the sort employed by the British Interplanetary Society’s Project Daedalus team, working their way through the design of a massive two-staged craft that was intended to reach Barnard’s Star. Daedalus was designed to move at 12 percent of lightspeed, carrying a 32 meter beryllium shield for its cruise phase. Designer Alan Bond opined that the craft could also deploy a cloud of...
Magnetic Collapse: A Spur to Evolution?
The sublime, almost fearful nature of deep time sometimes awes me even more than the kind of distances we routinely discuss in these pages. Yes, the prospect of a 13.8 billion year old cosmos strung with stars and galaxies astonishes. But so too do the constant reminders of our place in the vast chronology of our planet. Simple rocks can bring me up short, as when I consider just how they were made, how long the process took, and what they imply about life. Consider the shifts that have occurred in continents, which we can deduce from careful study at sites with varying histories. Move into northern Quebec, for example, and you can uncover rock that was found on the continent we now call Laurentia, considered a relatively stable region of the continental crust (the term for such a region is craton). Move to the Ukraine and you can investigate the geology of the continent called Baltica. Gondwana can be studied in Brazil, an obvious reminder of how much the surface has changed. Image:...
TOI-270 d: The Clearest Look Yet at a Sub-Neptune Atmosphere
Sub-Neptune planets are going to be occupying scientists for a long time. They’re the most common type of planet yet discovered, and they have no counterpart in our own Solar System. The media buzz about K2-18b that we looked at last time focused solely on the possibility of a biosignature detection. But this world, and another that I’ll discuss in just a moment, have a significance that can’t be confined to life. Because whether or not what is happening in the atmosphere of K2-18b is a true biosignature, the presence of a transiting sub-Neptune relatively close to the Sun offers immense advantages in studying the atmosphere and composition of this entire category. Are these ‘ hycean’ worlds with global oceans beneath an atmosphere largely made up of hydrogen? It’s a possibility, but it appears that not all sub-Neptunes are the same. Helpfully, we have another nearby transiting sub-Neptune, a world known as TOI-270 d, which at 73 light years is even closer than K2-18b, and has in...
A Possible Biosignature at K2-18b?
As teams of researchers begin to detect molecules that could indicate the presence of life in the atmospheres of exoplanets, controversies will emerge. In the early stages, the method will be transmission spectroscopy, in which light from the star passes through the planet’s atmosphere as it transits the host. From the resulting spectra various deductions may be drawn. Thus oxygen (O₂), ozone (O₃), methane (CH₄), or nitrous oxide (N₂O) would be interesting, particularly in out of equilibrium situations where a particular gas would need to be replenished to continue to exist. While we continue with the painstaking work of identifying potential biological markers -- and there will be many -- new findings will invariably become provocations to find abiotic explanations for them. Thus the recent flurry over K2-18b, a large (2.6 times Earth’s radius) sub-Neptune that, if not entirely gaseous, may be an example of what we are learning to call ‘hycean’ worlds. The term stands for...
New Explanations for the Enigmatic Wow! Signal
The Wow! signal, a one-off detection at the Ohio State ‘Big Ear’ observatory in 1977, continues to perplex those scientists who refuse to stop investigating it. If the signal were terrestrial in origin, we have to explain how it appeared at 1.42 GHz, while the band from 1.4 to 1.427 GHz is protected internationally – no emissions allowed. Aircraft can be ruled out because they would not remain static in the sky; moreover, the Ohio State observatory had excellent RFI rejection. Jim Benford today discusses an idea he put forward several years ago, that the Wow signal could have originated in power beaming, which would necessarily sweep past us as it moved across the sky and never reappear. And a new candidate has emerged, as Jim explains, involving an entirely natural process. Are we ever going to be able to figure this signal out? Read on for the possibilities. A familiar figure in these pages, Jim is a highly regarded plasma physicist and CEO of Microwave Sciences, as well as being...
Into Titan’s Ocean
When it comes to oceans beneath the surface of icy moons, Europa is the usual suspect. Indeed, Europa Clipper should have much to say about the moon's inner ocean when it arrives in 2030. But Titan, often examined for the possibility of unusual astrobiology, has an internal ocean too, beneath tens of kilometers of ice crust. The ice protects the mix of water and ammonia thought to be below, but may prove to be an impenetrable barrier for organic materials from the surface that might enrich it. I’ve recently written about abused terms in astrobiological jargon, and in regards to Titan, the term is ‘Earth-like,’ which trips me every time I run into it. True, this is a place where there is a substance (methane) that can appear in solid, liquid or gaseous form, and so we have rivers and lakes – even clouds – that are reminiscent of our planet. But on Earth the cycle is hydrological, while Titan’s methane mixing with ethane blows up the ‘Earth-like’ description. For methane to play this...
On ‘Sun-like’ Stars
The thought of a planet orbiting a Sun-like star began to obsess me as a boy, when I realized how different all the planets in our Solar System were from each other. Clearly there were no civilizations on any planet but our own, at least around the Sun. But if Alpha Centauri had planets, then maybe one of them was more or less where Earth was in relation to its star. Meaning a benign climate, liquid water, and who knew, a flourishing culture of intelligent beings. So ran my thinking as a teenager, but then other questions began to arise. Was Alpha Centauri Sun-like? Therein hangs a tale. As I began to read astronomy texts and realized how complicated the system was, the picture changed. Two stars and perhaps three, depending on how you viewed Proxima, were on offer here. ‘Sun-like’ seemed to imply a single star with stable orbits around it, but surely two stars as close as Centauri A and B would disrupt any worlds trying to form there. Later we would learn that stable orbits are...
Protoplanetary Disks Are Smaller Than Expected
In astronomy, the first thing you see may be the least typical. A case in point: ‘Hot Jupiters.’ A few prescient souls, among them Buzz Aldrin and John Barnes in their novel Encounter with Tiber, speculated about gas giants that survived incredibly tight orbits around their star, and when asked about this in the 1990s, Greg Matloff ran the numbers and confirmed to his surprise that there was a theoretical case for their existence. Let me quote Matloff on this: Although I was initially very skeptical since then-standard models of solar system formation seemed to rule out such a possibility, I searched through the literature and located the appropriate equation (Jastrow and Rasool, 1965)….To my amazement, Buzz was correct. The planet’s atmosphere is stable for billions of years. Since I was at the time working as a consultant and adjunct professor, I did not challenge the existing physical paradigm by submitting my results to a mainstream journal. Since “Hot Jupiters” were discovered...
A Multiwavelength Look at Proxima Centauri’s Flares
The problem of flares in red dwarf planetary systems is stark. With their habitable zones relatively near to the star, planets that might support life are exposed to huge outbursts of particles and radiation that can strip their atmospheres. We can see that in nearby M-dwarfs like Proxima Centauri, which is extremely active not only in visible light but also in radio and millimeter wavelengths. New work at the Atacama Large Millimeter/submillimeter Array (ALMA) digs into the millimeter-wavelength activity. The results do nothing to ease the concern that systems like this may be barren of life. Small M-dwarf stars are a problem because they operate through convection as energy from fusion at the core is transferred to the surface. A convective structure is one in which hot material from below moves constantly upward, a process that can be likened to what we see in a boiling cauldron of water. Larger stars like the Sun show a mix of radiative transfer – photons being absorbed and...
Can an Interstellar Generation Ship Maintain a Population on a 250-year Trip to a Habitable Exoplanet?
I grew up on generation ship stories. I'm thinking of tales like Heinlein's Orphans of the Sky, Aldiss' Non-Stop, and (from my collection of old science fiction magazines) Don Wilcox's "The Voyage that Lasted 600 Years." The latter, from 1940, may have been the first generation ship story ever written. The idea grows out of the realization that travel to the stars may take centuries, even millennia, and that one way to envision it is to take large crews who live out their lives on the journey, their descendants becoming the ones who will walk on a new world. The problems are immense, and as Alex Tolley reminds us in today's essay, we may not be fully considering some of the most obvious issues, especially closed life support systems. Project Hyperion is a game attempt to design a generation ship, zestfully tangling with the issues involved. The Initiative for Interstellar Studies is pushing the limits with this one. Read on. by Alex Tolley "Space," it says, "is big. Really big. You...
The Ethics of Spreading Life in the Cosmos
We keep trying to extend our reach into the heavens, but the idea of panspermia is that the heavens are actually responsible for us. Which is to say, that at least the precursor materials that allow life to emerge came from elsewhere, and did not originate on Earth. Over a hundred years ago Swedish scientist Svante Arrhenius suggested that the pressure of starlight could push bacterial spores between planets and we can extend the notion to interstellar journeys of hardy microbes as well, blasted out of planetary surfaces by such things as meteor impacts and flung into outbound trajectories. Panspermia notions inevitably get into the question of deep time given the distances involved. The German physician Hermann Richter (1808-1876) had something interesting to say about this, evidently motivated by his irritation with Charles Darwin, who had made no speculations on the origin of the life he studied. Richter believed in a universe that was eternal, and indeed thought that life itself...
Why Do Super-Earths and Mini-Neptunes Form Where They Do?
Exactly how astrophysicists model entire stellar systems through computer simulations has always struck me as something akin to magic. Of course, the same thought applies to any computational methods that involve interactions between huge numbers of objects, from molecular dynamics to plasma physics. My amazement is the result of my own inability to work within any programming language whatsoever. The work I’m looking at this morning investigates planet formation within protoplanetary disks. It reminds me again just how complex so-called N-body simulations have to be. Two scientists from Rice University – Sho Shibata and Andre Izidoro – have been investigating how super-Earths and mini-Neptunes form. That means simulating the formation of planets by studying the gravitational interactions of a vast number of objects. N-body simulations can predict the results of such interactions in systems as complex as protoplanetary disks, and can model formation scenarios from the collisions of...
Deep Space and the Art of the Map
NASA’s recently launched SPHEREx space telescope will map the entire celestial sky four times in two years, creating a 3D map of over 450 million galaxies. We can hope for new data on the composition of interstellar dust, among other things, so the mission has certain astrobiological implications. But today I’m focusing on the idea of maps of stars as created from our vantage here on Earth. How best to make maps of a 3D volume of stars? I’ve recently been in touch with Kevin Wall, who under the business name Astrocartics Lab has created the Astrocartics and Interstellar Surveyor maps he continues to refine. He explains the background of his interest in the subject in today’s essay while delving into the principles behind his work. by Kevin Wall The most imposing aspect of the universe we live in is that it is 3-dimensional. The star charts of the constellations that we are most familiar with show the 2-dimensional positions of stars fixed on the dome of the sky. We do not, however,...