Centauri Dreams
Imagining and Planning Interstellar Exploration
Closing on Hartley 2
With NASA’s EPOXI mission closing on comet Hartley 2 at 12.5 kilometers per second, be aware that live coverage of the close encounter will begin at 1330 UTC (0930 EDT) on Nov. 4 from mission control at the Jet Propulsion Laboratory. NASA TV streaming video will be available, and you should also be able to watch the action on a JPL Ustream channel. Finally, NASA’s Eyes on the Solar System Web tool, a 3-D environment for Solar System exploration, is available for viewing a real-time animation of the cometary flyby on your PC.
EPOXI is a great instance of re-purposing a spacecraft to extract maximum value. This is the Deep Impact vehicle that gave us such a spectacular view of the impactor smash-up on comet Tempel 1 back in the summer of 2005. Under the name EPOXI, the mission has pressed ahead with two separate objectives, the first being EPOCh, or Extrasolar Planet Observation and Characterization, which has involved a number of nearby stars known to have transiting exoplanets. The idea here was to observe the stars to see if other worlds might be detectable around them. More on this analysis and its potential for finding Earth-like worlds in a day or two.
The spacecraft has also given us useful studies of Earth as seen from a distance, information that should provide perspective as we learn to use spectral information to map continents and oceans on distant worlds. But Hartley 2 is part of the other extended mission, known as the Deep Impact Extended Investigation (DIXI). The mission will use the two Deep Impact telescopes with digital imagers that were used for Tempel 1, along with an infrared spectrometer, in making this fifth close encounter of a comet. Closest approach at Hartley 2 should be at about 700 kilometers.
Meanwhile, we’re already getting interesting information, including the fact that Hartley 2 is quite active. The spacecraft caught two jets firing off the comet’s surface over a 16-hour period on October 26, viewing these from a distance of 8 million kilometers. The video below shows the jets in action as seen by the High-Resolution Imager and the Medium Resolution Imager.
The jets are thought to originate from similar latitudes on the comet’s nucleus. Says EPOXI principal investigator Michael A’Hearn (University of Maryland):
“These movies are excellent complements of one another and really provide some excellent detail of how a comet’s jets operate. Observing these jets from EPOXI provides an entirely different viewpoint from what is available for Earth-based observers and will ultimately allow a proper three-dimensional reconstruction of the environment surrounding the nucleus.”
Arecibo’s planetary radar has also been focused on Hartley 2, with observations that began on October 24 and continued through the 29th. The comet came within 17.7 million kilometers of Earth on the 20th, its closest approach since discovery in 1986. The comet in these images appears to EPOXI project manager Tim Larson (JPL) as ‘a cross between a bowling pin and a pickle,’ a vegetable analogy quickly picked up by mission scientist Jon Giorgini (JPL):
“Observing comet Hartley 2 from the Earth with radar was like imaging a 6-inch spinning cucumber from 836 miles away. Even without all the data in, we can still make some basic assertions about Hartley 2. Its nucleus is highly elongated and about 2.2 kilometers long, and it rotates around itself about once every 18 hours. In addition we now know the size, speed and direction of particles being blown off the comet, and we immediately forwarded all this information to the EPOXI team.”
Below is the pickle in situ:
Image: Twelve radar images of the nucleus of comet Hartley 2 were obtained by the Arecibo Observatory’s planetary radar from Oct 25 to 27, 2010. Image Credit: NAIC-Arecibo/Harmon-Nolan.
Hartley 2 is offering up the best extended view of a comet in history as it makes its pass through the inner Solar System, and the creative recycled use of the spacecraft offers savings of up to 90 percent over the cost of a similar mission built from scratch. We’re going to be learning a lot more about Hartley 2 in short order, although expect images of closest approach to be delayed after the encounter as Deep Impact reorients its high gain antenna on Earth, at which point the downloading of cometary closeups can begin in earnest.
Millis: Thoughts on the ‘100-Year Starship’
by Marc Millis
When Pete Worden (NASA Ames) spoke to the Long Now Foundation recently, he surely didn’t realize how much confusion his announcement of a ‘100-Year Starship’ study would create. The news coverage has been all over the map and frequently incorrect, ranging from intimations of a coverup (Fox News) to mistaken linkages between the study and competely unrelated talk about one-way missions to Mars (the Telegraph and many other papers). What’s really going on in this collaboration between NASA and DARPA? Marc Millis has some thoughts on that based on his own talks with the principals. Millis, former head of NASA’s Breakthrough Propulsion Physics project and founding architect of the Tau Zero Foundation, here puts some of the myths to rest and explains where the 100-Year Starship fits into our future.
If you have not yet heard, there’s been a bit of news flurry over the announcement that DARPA is funding NASA Ames to the tune of $1M for a one-year study for a “100-Year Starship.” I was as surprised as anyone when I heard. First, DARPA (Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency) is a defense agency, not one concerned yet with things beyond Earth. Next, NASA’s Ames Research Center does not specialize in the advanced sciences and technologies of star flight, but rather in information technology, air traffic safety, astrobiology, and human factors.
If anything, I would have expected NASA Glenn Research Center (advanced propulsion and power for air and space flight) or NASA’s Jet Propulsion Lab (planetary and deep space probe missions) to have been selected as the NASA partner. And the third surprise is that NASA, in general, has been indifferent (since around 2003) to any goals beyond the von Braun visions for humans on the Moon and Mars. What is less surprising is that this confusion is wide spread. Quoting from Michael Braukus, a NASA spokesman at HQ, DC: “This is not a NASA program, there’s no money for it.”
So, what is the real story behind this and what does this mean for the Tau Zero Foundation?
First, the news stories mixed things up. During a lecture that Pete Worden (head of NASA-Ames) gave at a Long Now Foundation event, several different items were mentioned: The 100-year starship, microwave power beaming for launch assist, one-way missions to Mars, etc. The latter are separate items, not part of the starship study. Also, not all of this information was ready for disclosure, so it was jumping the gun a bit.
DARPA’s press release actually deals with HOW starships should be studied, rather than studying the starships themselves. They want help from Ames to consider the business case for a non-government organization to provide such services that would use philanthropic donations to make it happen. Quoting from DARPA’s news release: “The 100-Year Starship study looks to develop the business case for an enduring organization designed to incentivize breakthrough technologies enabling future spaceflight.” DARPA’s Paul Eremenko adds this:
“We endeavor to excite several generations to commit to the research and development of breakthrough technologies and cross-cutting innovations across a myriad of disciplines such as physics, mathematics, biology, economics, and psychological, social, political and cultural sciences, as well as the full range of engineering disciplines to advance the goal of long-distance space travel, but also to benefit mankind.”
Accordingly, I am one of the folks they contacted with whom to discuss this further. Even though this is an ideal match for the Tau Zero Foundation, there are other organizations and other implementation options that Ames and DARPA want to look at. Beyond that, I’m not supposed to go into details since it’s all “pre-decisional” kind of stuff. Rest assured that when things can be discussed you’ll get the most reliable reports right here on Centauri Dreams.
That said, I’ve also been writing a status update about the Tau Zero Foundation. Now that this latest interruption has ebbed, I’ll get back to that and will fill you in on all the things Tau Zero has been doing and where we stand today.
Ad astra incrementis!
Enchanted with the Outer System
It’s staggering how much our view of the Solar System has changed over the past few decades. The system I grew up with seemed a stable place. The planets were in well-defined orbits out to Pluto and, even if it were always possible another might be found, it surely couldn’t pose any great surprise in that great emptiness that was the outer system. But today we routinely track trans-Neptunian objects with diameters over 500 kilometers — about 50 of these have now been found, and some 122 TNOs at least 300 kilometers in diameter. We know about well over a thousand objects in that ring of early system debris called the Kuiper Belt.
It’s an increasingly messy place, this outer Solar System, and it has its own terminology. We have centaurs and plutinos, resonance objects, cubewanos, scattered disk objects (SDOs), Neptune trojans, damocloids, apollos and, perhaps, inner Oort cloud objects.
Nope, this isn’t the Solar System I grew up with, and every new discovery adds to the enchantment. Its burgeoning population of outer objects tells us much about its history, assuming we can make the right deductions from what we see. Orbital trajectories are a kind of history written in motion. The reason that a belt of objects beyond Neptune was first suspected was that Jupiter-family comets have orbital inclinations too low to be consistent with an origin in the Oort Cloud, that spherical cloud of comets thought to stretch a light year or more from the Sun. Advances in CCD technology soon made it possible to track down Kuiper Belt objects, and it’s now believed that 100,000 KBOs with diameters larger than 100 kilometers could exist, and perhaps as many as 800 million objects with diameters larger than five kilometers.
Image: Views of the Kuiper Belt and the Oort Cloud. Credit: Donald K. Yeoman/NASA/JPL.
The Outer System Poker Game
All of which is intriguing in its own right, but sometimes it takes a wild card to drive the story forward. That wild card came in the form of Sedna, discovered in 2003 by Mike Brown (Caltech). Brown has been ruminating over the discovery on his Mike Brown’s Planets site, where he notes the fact that the orbit of every object in the Solar System can be explained, at least in principle, by interactions with the known planets. Every object except Sedna:
Seven years ago, the moment I first calculated the odd orbit of Sedna and realized it never came anywhere close to any of the planets, it instantly became clear that we astronomers had been missing something all along. Either something large once passed through the outer parts of our solar system and is now long gone, or something large still lurks in a distant corner out there and we haven’t found it yet.
The possibilities are fascinating, one being the existence of an unknown planet of approximately Earth’s size at roughly 60 AU. Another possibility: A star that passed close to the Solar System at some point in the remote past, perhaps as close as 500 or 600 AU. In both cases, gravitational interactions would have interfered with what would otherwise have been a routine Kuiper Belt object, kicking it into its present orbit. Brown pegs the chances of a rogue star encounter at around one percent, but in any case, finding the culprit star would be impossible. The Sun has orbited the Milky Way 18 times in our Solar System’s history. “Everything is now so mixed up,” he adds, “that there is no way to know for sure what was where back when.”
The View from a Cluster
The third possibility? A kick from not one passing star but from many relatively nearby stars, a kick dating back to the Sun’s presence in the cluster in which the Sun was born. Brown’s description of the process and the place in which it might have occurred is worth repeating:
In the cluster of stars in which the sun might have been born there would have been thousands or even tens to hundreds of thousands of stars in this same volume, all held together by the gravitational pull of the massive amounts of gas between the still-forming stars. I firmly believe that the view from the inside of one of these clusters must be one of the most awesome sights in the universe, but I suspect no life form has ever seen it, because it is so short-lived that there might not even be time to make solid planets, much less evolve life.
A striking view indeed, and the poets among us can muse on its transience. Brown continues:
For as the still-forming stars finally pull in enough of the gas to become massive enough to ignite their nuclear-fusion-powered cores they quickly blow the remaining gas holding everything together away and then drift off solitary into interstellar space. Today we have no way of ever finding our solar siblings again. And, while we see these processes occurring out in space as other stars are being born, we really have no way to see back 4.5 billion years ago and see this happening as the sun itself formed.
But Sedna may help, because its orbit should be a record of what was going on when the Sun and our Solar System were in their infancy, a key to unlocking a 4.5 billion year old puzzle. The problem is that with only a single object of this kind, we wouldn’t have enough information on which to build the bigger picture, which is why researchers like Brown continue to look for other Sednas. It’s also why numerous other theories have sprung up, including the possibility that Sedna once orbited a different star and is actually an extra-solar dwarf planet. Or (an old favorite) that a brown dwarf somewhere in the Oort Cloud could have given it its nudge.
Of Dust and the Disk
All this reminds me of Mark Kuchner’s work on Kuiper Belt dust. Kuchner (NASA GSFC) has been running supercomputer simulations tracking the interactions of dust grains, and points to the Kuiper Belt as not only the home of countless small objects, but of dust and debris that model, though in a much older and developed way, the debris disks around Vega and Fomalhaut. At stake is how dust travels through the Solar System, affected by the solar wind and pushed by sunlight, not to mention the effects of collisions between icy grains themselves.
Kuchner’s team has been able to create infrared simulations of the Solar System as it might be seen from another star, using models of dust generation that could reflect what the condition of the Kuiper Belt was in a series of time frames going back in steps to 15 million years ago. The simulations show that a broad dusty disk like today’s collapses into a dense ring as we go back in time, producing something similar to the rings we’ve found around other stars. But today’s belt is still active. “[E}ven in the present-day solar system,” says Christopher Stark (Carnegie Institution for Science), “collisions play an important role in the Kuiper Belt’s structure.”
Interestingly for our model of dust in the outer system, Neptune’s gravitational effects push nearby particles into preferred orbits, creating a clear zone near the planet and dust enhancements that precede and follow it around the Sun. Kuchner calls this ‘carving a little gap in the dust.’ Our picture of dust in planetary systems is developing, but it’s worth noting how much work we have to do to anticipate the effects of dust on fast-moving spacecraft as we push past the heliopause and into true interstellar space. And Sedna’s odd orbit reminds us how much awaits discovery in our own systems’ furthest reaches.
Astrobiology and the Kuiper Belt
Here’s an interesting bit of news from the New Horizons team. Remember that the spacecraft, having made its pass by the Pluto/Charon system in 2015, will be moving ever deeper into the Kuiper Belt. It’s been the hope of mission planners that a close study of one or more objects there might be possible. Now astronomer Scott Sheppard (Carnegie Institution of Washington) has announced that he has detected the first asteroid in Neptune’s trailing Trojan zone (the planet’s L5 point), an area New Horizons will fly through before arriving at the Pluto/Charon binary.
2008 LC18 is not itself in range for a New Horizons flyby, but mission principal investigator Alan Stern notes its significance in a recent report on the mission’s Web site: ” …its discovery shows that additional and potentially closer Neptune Trojans that New Horizons might be able to study could be discovered in the next three years.” And that gives us an interesting mission extension for New Horizons, to take advantage of the instrumentation we’ve put deep into the outer system. Closest approach to Pluto occurs in 1719 days.
Colors of a KBO
Thus far we’ve been able to image about 1000 objects in the Kuiper Belt, and it’s interesting to note that they come in a range of colors. Work at NASA GSFC (Greenbelt, MD) now offers up a computer model that tells us how the icy bodies acquire their red, blue or white tints. The model is based on incoming radiation and its effects on the different layers of a KBO.
Image: This cutaway model shows a red “shelf” layer of a Kuiper Belt object peeking through the thin, darkened crust above so that the object appears red in telescopes. Credit: NASA/Conceptual Image Lab/Tyler Chase.
Active Processes Deep in the Outer System
I find Kuiper Belt objects utterly fascinating, and not least because of the possible astrobiological interest. Eris, for example, has a bright, icy surface. According to the GSFC model, deeper layers of relatively pure water ice could erupt upwards to form new outer layers on KBOs, accounting for Eris’ brightness. The potential for active processes deep within a KBO is intriguing, and I remember discussing astrobiological possibilities with Joel Poncy at last year’s Aosta conference. Poncy and team (Thales Alenia Space) were investigating a fast orbiter mission to Haumea, which is, like Eris, highly reflective and evidently covered with water ice.
Poncy’s point was that if you’re going to study KBOs in terms of astrobiology, Haumea isn’t the place, because its unusual shape (a flattened ellipsoid) probably derives from a major collision, which would have disrupted the interior processes we want to study. But we now have numerous objects with diameters over 500 kilometers beyond the orbit of Neptune, and we’ll doubtless find hundreds more in coming years. Some smaller KBOs, like 2002 TX300, are possibly the result of the same collision that produced Haumea. 2002 TX300 is highly reflective, its ice covering evidently fresh and thus somehow resurfaced periodically. The case for life inside a KBO is slim, but these intriguing objects may teach us something about life’s early chemistry.
Explaining How Colors Emerge
But back to the GSFC work. The colors of Kuiper Belt Objects seem related to the different sizes and orbits we’ve observed since 1992, when the first KBO, 1992 QB1, was discovered. John Cooper, a physicist at Goddard, takes note of KBO diversity:
“There’s a group called the Cold Classicals that move in relatively circular orbits, and are nearly aligned in the same plane as the orbits of the other planets. These are all consistently reddish. Other objects, which might range from red to blue to white, tend to move in more elliptical or inclined orbits, which suggest they came from a different location within the solar system early in its history. So, it’s possible that the uniformly red Cold Classicals represent a more pristine sample, showing the original composition of the Kuiper Belt with minimal disturbances.”
Cooper’s work tells us that radiation should affect different objects in different ways, depending on their location. The so-called Cold Classicals would have formed in an area where plasma ions from the Sun aren’t intense enough to darken the KBO’s outermost surface. Instead, the plasma ions ‘sandblast’ the topmost layer to expose the layer immediately below, with further erosion being produced by dust grains from collisions in the belt. Given enough time, simple chemical reactions producing organic molecules, a kind of radiation ‘cooking’ process mediated by radiation from interstellar space, can then produce the red tint we see on many KBOs.
Ice and Complex Molecules
White Kuiper Belt objects also fit within Cooper’s layer model, which assumes water ices in a deep mantle layer that can erupt onto the surface to leave bright icy patches. “So these may not be dead icy objects,” says Cooper, “they may be volcanically active over billions of years.” Usefully, New Horizons’ pass through this region may yield better surface observations not just of Pluto and Charon but objects beyond that will help us confirm what materials are present. And its readings of the energy distribution and particle count may confirm the factors needed to make Cooper’s model work.
And about astrobiology in the Kuiper Belt?
“When you take the right mix of materials and radiate them, you can produce the most complex species of molecules,” says Cooper. “In some cases you may be able to produce the components of life — not just organic materials, but biological molecules such as amino acids. We’re not saying that life is produced in the Kuiper Belt, but the basic chemistry may start there, as could also happen in similar Kuiper Belt environments elsewhere in the universe and that is a natural path which could lead toward the chemical evolution of life.”
Crunching the Numbers on Earth-Size Planets
Finding Earth-size planets around other stars is a long-cherished goal, and new results from Geoffrey Marcy and Andrew Howard (UC Berkeley) give us reason to think they’re out there in some abundance. As reported in Science, the astronomers have used the 10-meter Keck telescopes in Hawaii to make radial velocity measurements of 166 G and K-class stars within 80 light years of Earth. The resulting five years of data suggest that about one in every four stars like the Sun could have Earth-size planets, although none has thus far been detected.
“Of about 100 typical Sun-like stars, one or two have planets the size of Jupiter, roughly six have a planet the size of Neptune, and about 12 have super-Earths between three and 10 Earth masses,” said Howard, a research astronomer in UC Berkeley’s Department of Astronomy and at the Space Sciences Laboratory. “If we extrapolate down to Earth-size planets — between one-half and two times the mass of Earth — we predict that you’d find about 23 for every 100 stars.”
Howard and Marcy were homing in on close-in planets, but their findings support the possibility of finding more Earth-sized planets at greater distances, and that includes worlds in the habitable zone. But the findings seem at variance with some models of planet migration, which suggest that interactions in the gas disk around the star would cause many planets to spiral inward. That would create what the researchers call a ‘planet desert’ in the inner region of solar systems, one that these two researchers do not see in their findings. Says Marcy:
“Just where we see the most planets, models predict we would find no cacti at all. These results will transform astronomers’ views of how planets form.”
And let me quote the abstract on this:
Theoretical models of planet formation predict a deficit of planets in the domain from 5 to 30 Earth masses and with orbital periods less than 50 days. This region of parameter space is in fact well populated, implying that such models need substantial revision.
Image: The data, depicted here in this illustrated bar chart, show a clear trend. Small planets outnumber larger ones. Astronomers extrapolated from these data to estimate the frequency of the Earth-size planets — nearly one in four sun-like stars, or 23 percent, are thought to host Earth-size planets orbiting close in. Each bar on this chart represents a different group of planets, divided according to their masses. In each of the three highest-mass groups, with masses comparable to Saturn and Jupiter, the frequency of planets around sun-like stars was found to be 1.6 percent. For intermediate-mass planets, with 10 to 30 times the mass of Earth, or roughly the size of Neptune and Uranus, the frequency is 6.5 percent. And the super-Earths, weighing in at only three to 10 times the mass of Earth, had a frequency of 11.8 percent. NASA/JPL-Caltech/UC Berkeley
Out of the 166 stars surveyed, 22 had detectable planets, with 33 planets being found in all (twelve planet candidates are still in the process of confirmation, which could raise the total as high as 45 planets around 32 stars). We’ll get another read on this from Kepler, for plugging these conclusions into its survey of 156,000 stars should yield 120 to 260 ‘plausibly terrestrial worlds’ with orbital periods of less than 50 days around G and K stars. Adds Howard: “One of astronomy’s goals is to find eta-Earth, the fraction of Sun-like stars that have an Earth. This is a first estimate, and the real number could be one in eight instead of one in four. But it’s not one in 100, which is glorious news.”
Needless to say, Earth-sized planets orbiting a Sun-like star at roughly one quarter of an AU do not make for habitable places, but these are statistical calculations that give us a rough read on what to expect. If we follow up with the assumption that thus far undetected Earth-sized planets should also form in the habitable zone, then G and K stars should yield numerous targets for future terrestrial planet hunter missions. We’re still looking for a ‘second Earth’ in the habitable zone of a Sun-like star, but these calculations suggest the prospects are promising.
The paper is Marcy and Howard, “The Occurrence and Mass Distribution of Close-in Super-Earths, Neptunes, and Jupiters,” Science Vol. 330, No. 6004 (29 October, 2010), pp. 653 – 655 (abstract).
Ocean Impacts and Their Consequences
It’s good to see asteroid deflection occasionally popping up in the news, thanks to the efforts of people like former astronaut Rusty Schweickart, whose efforts as co-chairman of the Task Force on Planetary Defense of the NASA Advisory Council are complemented by his work for non-profits like the B612 Foundation. Schweickart is worried about the potential consequences of even a small asteroid impact, pointing to the Tunguska event of 1908, in which 800 square miles of Siberian forest were flattened in the kind of strike that occurs every 200 to 300 years.
Bigger asteroids are, obviously, a far greater danger, and while they’re much rarer, they do have the capability of wiping out entire species, as may well have occurred some 65 million years ago in the destruction of the dinosaurs. In his recent New York Times article, Schweickart notes what we need to do:
With a readily achievable detection and deflection system we can avoid their same fate. Professional (and a few amateur) telescopes and radar already function as a nascent early warning system, working every night to discover and track those planet-killers. Happily, none of the 903 we’ve found so far seriously threaten an impact in the next 100 years.
Nonetheless, asteroids demand a constant vigilance. Schweickart continues:
Although catastrophic hits are rare, enough of these objects appear to be or are heading our way to require us to make deflection decisions every decade of so.
A deflection capacity is something NASA needs to be looking at, and the report of the Task Force on Planetary Defense urges that financing for it be added to the NASA budget. Schweickart believes that $250 to $300 million, added annually over the next ten years, would allow our inventory of near-Earth asteroids to be completed and a deflection capability to be developed, after which a maintenance budget ($50 to $75 million per year) would keep us tuned up for potential deployment.
Underscoring the need for a deflection capability is the work of Elisabetta Pierazzo (Planetary Science Institute), whose forthcoming paper in Earth and Planetary Science Letters focuses on two impact scenarios, 500-meter and 1-kilometer asteroids hitting a 4-kilometer deep ocean. What Pierazzo finds is that an ocean strike could deplete the Earth’s protective ozone layer for several years, resulting in a spike in ultraviolet radiation levels that would, among other things, make it more difficult to grow crops (not to mention its effects on other life forms).
Pierazzo and team’s atmospheric simulations show a global perturbation of upper atmosphere chemistry, as water vapor and compounds like chlorine and bromide alter the ozone layer to create a new ozone hole. Adds Pierazzo:
“The removal of a significant amount of ozone in the upper atmosphere for an extended period of time can have important biological repercussions at the Earth’s surface as a consequence of increase in surface UV-B irradiance. These include increased incidence of erythema (skin reddening), cortical cataracts, changes in plant growth and changes in molecular DNA.”
Ultraviolet radiation intensity can be expressed by the ultraviolet index (UVI), which indicates the intensity of UV radiation at the surface, with the higher numbers tending toward damage to skin and eyes. While a UVI of 10 is considered dangerous, resulting in burns to fair-skinned people after short exposure, values up to 18 are occasionally recorded at the equator. The highest recorded UVI is 20, recorded at a high-altitude desert in Puna de Atacama, Argentina.
Modeling a strike by an asteroid that hit at latitude 30 degrees north in the Pacific Ocean in January, Pierazzo’s simulations show that a 500-meter asteroid impact would result in a major ozone hole, boosting UVI values to over 20 for several months in the northern subtropics. A 1-kilometer asteroid would drive the UVI in certain areas to a sizzling 56, while boosting UVI values over 20 within a 50-degree latitude band north and south of the equator for about two years. The affected band’s northern end would include Seattle and Paris, while its southern end reached New Zealand and Argentina.
“A level of 56 has never been recorded before, so we are not sure what it is going to do,” adds Pierazzo. “It would produce major sunburn. We could stay inside to protect ourselves, but if you go outside during daylight hours you would burn. You would have to go outside at night, after sunset, to avoid major damage.”
We always tend to depict asteroid impacts in terms of their direst consequences as a way of illustrating the magnitude of the threat. But it’s chastening to learn that even a survivable impact like those Pierazzo and team have modeled would create serious environmental damage even if loss of life could be prevented. All this assumes, too, an asteroid that strikes in the ocean (the most likely scenario). There’s no question that building up our planetary defense against such impacts is the best insurance we could create, stopping potential impactors before they near our planet.
The paper is Pierazzo et al., “Ozone perturbation from medium-size asteroid impacts in the ocean,” in press at Earth and Planetary Science Letters (abstract). Jeremy Hsu’s article on this work in LiveScience is excellent.