Let's take a look at how Earth's carbon came to be here, through the medium of two new papers. This is a process most scientists have assumed involved molecules in the original solar nebula that wound up on our world through accretion as the gases cooled and the carbon molecules precipitated. But the first of the papers (both by the same team, though with different lead authors) points out that gas molecules carrying carbon won't do the trick. When carbon vaporizes, it does not condense back into a solid, and that calls for some explanation. University of Michigan scientist Jie Li is lead author of the first paper, which appears in Science Advances. The analysis here says that carbon in the form of organic molecules produces much more volatile species when it is vaporized, and demands low temperatures to form solids. Moreover, says Li, it does not condense back into organic form. "The condensation model has been widely used for decades. It assumes that during the formation of the...

I've used the discovery of 'Oumuamua as a learning opportunity. I knew nothing about the Local Standard of Rest (LSR) when the analysis of the object began, but soon learned that it measured the mean motion of interstellar materials in the Milky Way near the Sun. The Sun moves clockwise as viewed from galactic north, with an orbital speed that has been measured, through interferometric techniques, at 255.2 kilometers per second, give or take 5.1 km/s. Invoking the LSR in this connection calls for a quote from Eric Mamajek (JPL/Caltech) in his paper "Kinematics of the Interstellar Vagabond 1I/'Oumuamua (A/2017 U1)" (abstract here): 'Oumuamua's velocity is within 5 km/s of the median Galactic velocity of the stars in the solar neighborhood (<25 pc), and within 2 km/s of the mean velocity of the local M dwarfs. Its velocity appears to be statistically "too" typical for a body whose velocity was drawn from the Galactic velocity distribution of the local stars (i.e. less than 1 in 500...

I’m only just getting to Steven Desch and Alan Jackson’s two papers on ‘Oumuamua, though in a just world (where I could clone myself and work on multiple stories simultaneously) I would have written them up sooner. Following Avi Loeb’s book on ‘Oumuamua, the interstellar object has been in the news more than ever, and the challenge it throws out by its odd behavior has these two astrophysicists, both at Arizona State, homing in on a possible solution. No extraterrestrial technologies in this view, but rather an unusual object made of nitrogen ice, common in the outer Solar System and likely to be similarly distributed in other systems. Think of it as a shard of a planet like Pluto, where nitrogen ice is ubiquitous. Desch and Jackson calculated the object’s albedo, or reflectivity, with the idea in mind, realizing that the ice would be more reflective than astronomers had assumed ‘Oumuamua was, and thus it could be smaller. As the authors note: “Its brightness would be consistent with...

Given that we are just emerging as a spacefaring species, it seems reasonable to think that any civilizations we are able to detect will be considerably more advanced -- in terms of technology, at least -- than ourselves. But just how advanced can a civilization become before it does irreparable damage to itself and disappears? This question of longevity appears as a factor in the famous Drake Equation and continues to bedevil SETI speculation today. In a paper in process at The Astronomical Journal, Amedeo Balbi (Università degli Studi di Roma “Tor Vergata”) and Milan ?irkovi? (Astronomical Observatory of Belgrade) explore the longevity question and create a technosignature classification scheme that takes it into account. Here we’re considering the kinds of civilization that might be detected and the most likely strategies for success in the technosignature hunt. The ambiguity in Drake’s factor L is embedded in its definition as the average length of a civilization’s communication...

Héctor Socas-Navarro (Instituto de Astrofísica de Canarias) is lead author of a paper on technosignatures that commands attention. Drawing on work presented at the TechnoClimes 2020 virtual meeting, under the auspices of NASA at the Blue Marble Space Institute of Science in Seattle, the paper pulls together a number of concepts for technosignature detection. Blue Marble’s Jacob Haqq-Misra is a co-author, as is James Benford (Microwave Sciences), Jason Wright (Pennsylvania State) and Ravi Kopparapu (NASA GSFC), all major figures in the field, but the paper also draws on the collected thinking of the TechnoClimes workshop participants. We’ve already looked at a number of technosignature possibilities in these pages, so let me look for commonalities as we begin, beyond simply listing possibilities, to point toward a research agenda, something that NASA clearly had in mind for the TechnoClimes meeting. The first thing to say is that technosignature work is nicely embedded within more...

The reaction to Avi Loeb's new book Extraterrestrial (Houghton Mifflin Harcourt, 2021) has been quick in coming and dual in nature. I'm seeing a certain animus being directed at the author in social media venues frequented by scientists, not so much for suggesting the possibility that 'Oumuamua is an extraterrestrial technological artifact, but for triggering a wave of misleading articles in the press. The latter, that second half of the dual reaction, has certainly been widespread and, I have to agree with the critics, often uninformed. Image credit: Kris Snibbe/Harvard file photo. But let's try to untangle this. Because my various software Net-sweepers collect most everything that washes up on 'Oumuamua, I'm seeing stark headlines such as "Why Are We So Afraid of Extraterrestrials," or "When Will We Get Serious about ET?" I'm making those particular headlines up, but they catch the gist of many of the stories I've seen. I can see why some of the scientists who spend their working...

While we often think about so-called Dysonian SETI, which looks for signatures of technology in our astronomical data, as a search for Dyson spheres, the parameter space it defines is getting to be quite wide. A technosignature has to be both observable as well as unique, to distinguish it from natural phenomena. Scientists working this aspect of SETI have considered not just waste heat (a number of searches for distinctive infrared signatures of Dyson spheres have been run), but also artificial illumination, technological features on planetary surfaces, artifacts not associated with a planet, stellar pollution and megastructures. Thus the classic Dyson sphere, a star enclosed by a swarm or even shell of technologies to take maximum advantage of its output, is only one option for SETI research. As Ravi Kopparapu (NASA GSFC) and colleagues point out in an upcoming paper, we can also cross interestingly from biosignature searches to technosignatures by looking at planetary atmospheres....

The stars move ever on. What seems like a fixed distance due to the limitations of our own longevity morphs over time into an evolving maze of galactic orbits as stars draw closer to and then farther away from each other. If we were truly long-lived, we might ask why anyone would be in such a hurry to mount an expedition to Alpha Centauri. Right now we’d have to travel 4.2 light years to get to Proxima Centauri and its interesting habitable zone planet. But 28,000 years from now, Alpha Centauri -- all three stars -- will have drawn to within 3.2 light years of us. But we can do a lot better than that. Gliese 710 is an M-dwarf about 64 light years away in the constellation Serpens Cauda. For the patient among us, it will move in about 1.3 million years to within 14,000 AU, placing it well within the Oort Cloud and making it an obvious candidate for worst cometary orbit disruptor of all time. But read on. Stars have come much closer than this. [Addendum: A reader points out that some...

Moore’s Law, first stated all the way back in 1965, came out of Gordon Moore’s observation that the number of transistors per silicon chip was doubling every year (it would later be revised to doubling every 18-24 months). While it’s been cited countless times to explain our exponential growth in computation, Greg Laughlin, Fred Adams and team, whose work we discussed in the last post, focus not on Moore’ Law but a less publicly visible statement known as Landauer’s Principle. Drawing from Rolf Landauer’s work at IBM, the 1961 equation defines the lower limits for energy consumption in computation. You can find the equation here, or in the Laughlin/Adams paper cited below, where the authors note that for an operating temperature of 300 K (a fine summer day on Earth), the maximum efficiency of bit operations per erg is 3.5 x 1013. As we saw in the last post, a computational energy crisis emerges when exponentially increasing power requirements for computing exceed the total power...

I see there's now a Wikipedia page for BLC-1, the intriguing SETI detection made by Breakthrough Listen at the Parkes Observatory in Australia. The dataset in which the signal, found at 982 MHz, turned up comes from observations made in April and May of 2019, and it's good to know that Breakthrough is working up two papers on the signal and subsequent analysis, given that the public face of the detection was originally in the form of a story leaked to the British newspaper The Guardian before the backup research was available. Image: CSIRO's Parkes radio telescope in New South Wales, Australia. Credit: Shaun Amy. The first thing to say about BLC-1 is that the acronym stands for Breakthrough Listen Candidate 1, marking the first time a signal has made it through to actual 'candidate' status after five years of observations, which is itself noteworthy given the intensity of the effort. The second thing is that this is a transient, meaning it's short-lived, and it hasn't repeated. That...

Sorry for the server problems the last few days, which resulted in some tinkering under the hood by people far more skilled at such things than I am. Meanwhile, those experiencing deja vu at seeing this post should take heart -- there is a simple explanation. Last week I posted an earlier article about Claudio Maccone's upcoming presentation on gravitational lensing and the FOCAL mission to exploit it, but had to withdraw the post when I realized the live session, a 'webinar' organized by Ravi Kumar Kopparapu (NASA GSFC) and Jacob Haqq Misra (Blue Marble Space Institute of Science), might not be available beyond a restricted audience. Once that was straightened out, the meeting had already occurred, but fortunately Dr. Maccone's session was recorded and is now available here. I'm going to go ahead and run the rest of that earlier post now, because most people didn't see it. Even so, and despite the fact that it was only up on the site for a few minutes, that turned out to be long...

If we ever make a SETI detection, will it be of biological beings or machine intelligence? As Alex Tolley explains in today's essay, there are reasons for favoring the latter possibility, leading our author to compose what he calls a 'light-hearted speculation' about machines searching for other civilizations of their own kind. Life seems to be easy compared to this. We are developing the tools to delve into planetary atmospheres in search of biosignatures, hoping to cull out ambiguities. But is there an equivalent in the machine world of a biosignature, and how would it be found? Interesting implications arise, some of them seemingly close to home. by Alex Tolley Curiosity Rover. Credit Nasa. Terry Bisson's amusing short sci-fi story "They're made Out of Meat" [4], is a communication between two individuals who express their disbelief that a biological species (detected on Earth by a galactic survey) can possibly be intelligent. The denouement is to erase the record of discovery...

Science fiction writers range freely through time, making many scientific papers fertile ground for plot ideas and settings. So here's an extraordinary one. We know that Earth's continents used to be packed into a single large land mass called Pangaea, which is thought to have broken apart about 200 million years ago as tectonic plates shifted. Interestingly, we can expect a remote future in which the continents will have once again come together, as Michael Way (NASA GSFC) has pointed out at an online poster session at the ongoing virtual meeting of the American Geophysical Union. And such a supercontinent has ramifications for habitability. Let's talk about those because they have a bearing on astrobiology as we examine exoplanets and consider their suitability for life. We're a decade or so (at minimum) away from being able to determine how land and sea are distributed on a nearby world, but climate modeling is useful as we look toward estimating habitability. That involves, as...

We're a long way from knowing what is going on in terms of possible life in the clouds of Venus, but one thing is already clear: The phosphine signature, as well as its implications, is going to be thrashed out in the journals, as witness a new study from Rakesh Mogul (Cal Poly Pomona, Pomona, CA) and colleagues that looks at data from the Pioneer-Venus Large Probe Neutral Mass Spectrometer (LNMS), dating back to the Pioneer Venus Multiprobe mission in 1978. These data seem to support the presence of phosphine, while leaving its origin unknown. But Clara Sousa-Silva (Harvard-Smithsonian Center for Astrophysics), who was involved in the earlier phosphine work led by Jane Greaves at Cardiff University (see What Phosphine Means on Venus), subsequently examined data collected in 2015 at Mauna Kea and found no sign of phosphine. And now we have another paper, this one submitted to Science by Ignas Snellen and team (Leiden University), that carries its message in the title: "Re-analysis of...

Keith Cooper's The Contact Paradox is as thoroughgoing a look at the issues involved in SETI as I have seen in any one volume. After I finished it, I wrote to Keith, a Centauri Dreams contributor from way back, and we began a series of dialogues on SETI and other matters, the first of which ran here last February as Exploring the Contact Paradox. Below is a second installment of our exchanges, which were slowed by external factors at my end, but the correspondence continues. What can we infer from human traits about possible contact with an extraterrestrial culture? And how would we evaluate its level of intelligence? Keith is working on a new book involving both the Cosmic Microwave Background and quantum gravity, the research into which will likewise figure into our future musings that will include SETI but go even further afield. Keith, in our last dialogue I mentioned a factor you singled out in your book The Contact Paradox as hugely significant in our consideration of SETI and...

James Gunn may have been the first science fiction author to anticipate the 'new Venus,' i.e., the one we later discovered thanks to observations and Soviet landings on the planet that revealed what its surface was really like. His 1955 tale "The Naked Sky" described "unbearable pressures and burning temperatures" when it ran in Startling Stories for the fall of that year. Gunn was guessing, but we soon learned Venus really did live up to that depiction. I think Larry Niven came up with the best title among SF stories set on the Venus we found in our data. "Becalmed in Hell" is a 1965 tale in Niven's 'Known Space' sequence that deals with clouds of carbon dioxide, hydrochloric and hydrofluoric acids. No more a tropical paradise, this Venus was a serious do-over of Venus as a story environment, and the more we learned about the planet, the worse the scenario got. But when it comes to life in the Venusian clouds -- human, no less -- I always think of Geoffray Landis, not only because...

A biosignature is always going to create a rolling discussion that gradually homes in on a consensus. Which is to say that the recent discovery of phosphine in the upper atmosphere of Venus has inspired a major effort to figure out how phosphine could emerge abiotically. After all, the scientists behind the just published paper on the phosphine discovery seem to be saying something to the community like "We can't come up with a solution other than life to explain this. Maybe you can." The 'maybes' are out there and they include life, but what a tough spot for life to develop, for obvious reasons, not the least of which is the hyper-acidic nature of its clouds. So let's dig into the story a bit more. The idea of life in the cloud layers of an atmosphere has a long pedigree, even on Venus, where discussions go back at least to the 1960s. Harold Morowitz and Carl Sagan examined the matter in a paper in Science in 1967, a speculation that led them to conclude "it is by no means difficult...

As it is considered a precursor installation, the Murchison Widefield Array (MWA) in Western Australia doesn't get the press that its proposed successor, the Square Kilometer Array (SKA) regularly receives. That's to be expected, given the scope of the SKA, which will involve telescopes in both Australia and South Africa. 14 member countries are developing a project that is to reach over a square kilometer of collecting area, containing thousands of dishes and up to a million low-frequency antennas. If it is built, SKA's angular resolution and survey speed will allow surveys thousands of times faster than those now being conducted. But the Murchison precursor is alive and well, working the 70-300 MHz range and mapping the radio sky. Established by a consortium of universities -- MIT, Swinburne, Curtin and Australian National University -- the telescope is located on a site selected by these universities and managed by Curtin University. CSIRO, Australia's national science agency,...

What Breakthrough Listen is calling the most comprehensive SETI search to date is now in the books, or at least, the journals, with results accepted and in process at Monthly Notices of the Royal Astronomical Society. Here we are in the realm of data reanalysis, using previously acquired results to serve as a matrix for re-calculation, with the catalog produced by the European Space Agency’s Gaia spacecraft as the key that turns the lock. No signatures of extraterrestrial technology were detected in the two analyses produced by Breakthrough Listen in 2017 and 2020. The data for these efforts come largely from the Green Bank Telescope (GBT) in West Virginia and the CSIRO Parkes Radio Telescope in Australia, with a focus on 1327 individual stars. Results were published by the Breakthrough Listen science team at UC-Berkeley, and the choice of targets was telling. The search homed in on relatively nearby stars within about 160 light years of the Sun, under the assumption that less...

Beyond its immediate cultural and philosophical implications, the reception of a signal from another civilization will call for analysis across all academic disciplines as we try to make sense of it. Herewith a proposal for an Interstellar Communication Relay, both data repository and distribution system designed to apply worldwide resources to the problem. Author Brian McConnell is an American computer engineer who has written three technical books, two about SETI (the search for extraterrestrial intelligence), and one about electric propulsion systems for spacecraft. The latter, A Design for a Reusable Water-Based Spacecraft Known as the Spacecoach (Springer, 2015) has been the subject of extensive discussion on Centauri Dreams (see, for example, Brian's A Stagecoach to the Stars, and Alex Tolley's Spaceward Ho!). Brian has also published numerous peer reviewed scientific papers and book chapters related to SETI, and is an expert on interstellar communication systems and on...