by Paul Gilster | Jun 20, 2019 | Asteroid and Comet Deflection |
Ever since the passage of interstellar interloper ‘Oumuamua, we’ve become aware of the opportunities presented by objects entering our system from interstellar space, at the same time wishing we had the resources at hand to investigate them close-up. Andreas Hein and colleagues at the Initiative for Interstellar Studies have examined the possibilities for reaching ‘Oumuamua through Project Lyra (see Project Lyra: Sending a Spacecraft to 1I/’Oumuamua), a study that also takes in the kind of future infrastructure that could allow us to react to the next such object.
Now comes the interesting news that the European Space Agency is developing a mission called Comet Interceptor, one capable of visiting a long-period comet coming into the inner system from the Oort Cloud, but just as capable of reaching an interstellar visitor. The idea revolves around not a single spacecraft, but a combination of three. The composite vehicle would be capable of orbiting the L2 Lagrange point 1.5 million kilometers from Earth until it finds a suitable target. At that point, it would journey to the object and separate into three modules.
Image: Comet Interceptor has been selected as ESA’s new fast-class mission. It will be the first spacecraft to visit a truly pristine comet or other interstellar object that is only just starting its journey into the inner Solar System. The spacecraft will wait at the Sun-Earth Lagrange point L2, which is 1.5 million kilometres ‘behind’ Earth as viewed from the Sun. It will travel to an as-yet undiscovered comet, making a flyby of the chosen target when it is on the approach to Earth’s orbit. The mission comprises three spacecraft that will perform simultaneous observations from multiple points around the comet. Credit: ESA.
Each module will be equipped with a science payload that complements the instrumentation on the others, offering insights into cometary gas and dust and the plasma environment near the object through a mass spectrometer along with dust, field and plasma instruments. Thus we get ‘multi-point’ measurements offering insights into cometary interactions with the solar wind, the stream of plasma from the Sun that itself is constantly changing in velocity and intensity.
This is a fundamentally different concept from previous missions like Giotto and Rosetta. Giotto flew within 600 kilometers of Comet 1P/Halley in 1986, with another pass by Comet Grigg-Skjellerup in 1992. Rosetta targeted Comet 67P/Churyumov-Gerasimenko in a highly successful mission in 2014. Both comets are short-period objects with periods of less than 200 years, with 67P/Churyumov-Gerasimenko orbiting every 6.5 years and Halley every 76.
In both cases, the comet’s frequent passage into the inner system has meant changes to the surface. What Comet Interceptor is looking for is a first-time visitor, one whose materials should be relatively unprocessed since the earliest days of the system. But ESA is also thinking about interstellar objects like ‘Oumuamua as potential destinations, for the mission has the luxury of being able to choose its target from its stable vantage point at L2. Given the success of the Pan-STARRS effort at finding new comets and the construction of the Large Synoptic Survey Telescope in Chile, slated to reach first light in 2020, we should have no shortage of targets.
ESA director of science Günther Hasinger describes the mission in context:
“Pristine or dynamically new comets are entirely uncharted and make compelling targets for close-range spacecraft exploration to better understand the diversity and evolution of comets. The huge scientific achievements of Giotto and Rosetta – our legacy missions to comets – are unrivalled, but now it is time to build upon their successes and visit a pristine comet, or be ready for the next ‘Oumuamua-like interstellar object.”
Image: Kuiper Belt and Oort Cloud in context. Credit: ESA.
In official terminology, Comet Interceptor is an F-class mission, the ‘F’ standing for ‘fast,’ as in ‘fast implementation’ — the total development time from selection of the mission to readiness to launch is to be eight years. But we might also consider it in terms of ‘fast response,’ just what is needed to reach objects that appear with no prior warning. This category of mission will have a launch mass of less than 1,000 kilograms. Comet Interceptor is now seen going into space along with exoplanet hunter ARIEL in 2028, both missions being delivered to L2.
by Paul Gilster | Jun 6, 2019 | Asteroid and Comet Deflection |
I’ve argued in these pages that the interstellar effort will be driven as much by planetary protection as by the human exploratory impulse. I count the latter as crucial, but we often think of planetary protection as an immediate response to a specific problem. Let’s place it, though, in context. Now that we’re actively cataloging asteroids that come near the Earth, we have to know how and when to react if what looks like a dangerous trajectory turns into a deadly one. That mandates a continued level of observation and progress on mitigation technologies.
A small nudge counts for a lot with an object that’s a long way out, and we can’t exclude, for example, long period comets in our thinking about planetary protection. So mitigation strategies that begin with changing the trajectory of a small, nearby object will grow with our capabilities to encompass more distant options, and that incentivizes the building of a defensive infrastructure that can operate deep into the Solar System. We need deep space technologies that can not only form a warning network but a defensive screen in case a threat develops.
We’ll build out a Solar System infrastructure one day that can do these things, one with inevitable consequences for the technologies that also foster exploration far beyond Sol. So when I see the recent images of the asteroid 1999 KW4, I’m also reminded of another binary asteroid called Didymos. With its companion (‘Didymoon’), Didymos is to be the subject of a NASA asteroid mitigation experiment, in which the DART spacecraft will impact the small moon in 2022 to gauge orbital changes that can be induced around the larger object. The European Space Agency will follow up with data from the asteroid in 2026 in a mission called Hera.
As to DART itself, the acronym stands for Double Asteroid Redirection Test. We’re talking about an impactor demonstrating the kinetic effects on the tiny object to see just how effective a deflection strategy may be. Didymos is not an Earth-crosser but it does provide a useful venue for the experiment. It’s worth remembering that a variety of options exist for asteroid mitigation, but DART will offer the first kinetic impact test at a scale realistic for planetary defense.
Image: Schematic of the DART mission shows the impact on the moonlet of asteroid (65803) Didymos. Post-impact observations from Earth-based optical telescopes and planetary radar would, in turn, measure the change in the moonlet’s orbit about the parent body. Credit: NASA/Johns Hopkins Applied Physics Lab.
But back to 1999 KW4. which was imaged by the SPHERE instrument (Spectro-Polarimetric High-Contrast Exoplanet Research) on the European Southern Observatory’s Very Large Telescope. SPHERE was designed to be an exoplanet hunter using adaptive optics to screen out atmospheric distortion, but it proved its mettle much closer to home by providing sharp images of an asteroid just 1.3 kilometers wide that flew by the Earth in late May, offering the opportunity for an observing campaign coordinated by the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN).
“These data, combined with all those that are obtained on other telescopes through the IAWN campaign, will be essential for evaluating effective deflection strategies in the event that an asteroid was found to be on a collision course with Earth,” said ESO astronomer Olivier Hainaut. “In the worst possible case, this knowledge is also essential to predict how an asteroid could interact with the atmosphere and Earth’s surface, allowing us to mitigate damage in the event of a collision.”
Image: The unique capabilities of the SPHERE instrument on ESO’s Very Large Telescope have enabled it to obtain the sharpest images of a double asteroid as it flew by Earth on 25 May. While this double asteroid was not itself a threatening object, scientists used the opportunity to rehearse the response to a hazardous Near-Earth Object (NEO), proving that ESO’s front-line technology could be critical in planetary defence. The left-hand image shows SPHERE observations of Asteroid 1999 KW4. The angular resolution in this image is equivalent to picking out a single building in New York — from Paris. An artist’s impression of the asteroid pair is shown on the right. Credit: ESO.
The two components of 1999 KW4, separated by about 2.6 kilometers, were moving at approximately 19.5 kilometers per second as they flew past the Earth, a challenge for observers not only because of their faintness and fast motion, but because atmospheric conditions were unstable at the time and the SPHERE adaptive optics system crashed more than once, though operations were quickly restored. The asteroid and tiny satellite reached a minimum distance of 5.2 million kilometers from Earth on May 25, about 14 times the distance to the Moon.
by Paul Gilster | May 28, 2019 | Asteroid and Comet Deflection |
‘Hyperactive’ comets tend to call attention to themselves. Take Comet Hartley 2 (103P/Hartley), which was visited by the EPOXI mission (formerly Deep Impact) in November of 2010. Three months of imaging and 117,000 images and spectra showed us just how much water and carbon dioxide the little comet was producing in the form of asymmetrical jets, a level of cometary activity that made the comet, in the words of one researcher, ‘skittish.’ It was, said EPOXI project manager Tim Larson at the time, “moving around the sky like a knuckleball.”
Image: Comet Hartley 2, in every sense of the term a moving target. Credit: NASA.
Nor is Hartley 2 alone. Scientists had a good look at comet 46P/Wirtanen from the SOFIA airborne observatory [Stratospheric Observatory for Infrared Astronomy] last December. Here again we see a pattern of hyperactivity, with a comet releasing more water than the surface area of the nucleus would seem to allow. The excess draws on an additional source of water vapor in these comets, ice-rich particles originally expelled from the nucleus that have undergone sublimation into the cometary atmosphere, or coma. Moreover, it’s water with a difference.
For if there is one topic that draws the attention of all of us interested in the early Solar System, it’s the question of where Earth’s water comes from. A standard model of the protosolar nebula has temperatures in the terrestrial planet zone too high for water ice to survive, which would mean that the Earth accreted dry, and present-day water would have been delivered later, by comets or asteroids. Other models of in situ production of Earth’s water are also in contention, so the field is far from won by comets, asteroids or other mechanisms.
One way to study the comet possibility is through isotopic ratios, where we have two forms of a chemical element with different mass. Thus deuterium, which is a heavier form of hydrogen, can be measured in the deuterium/hydrogen, or D/H ratio. Data from Oort Cloud comets have tended to run twice to three times the value of ocean water, making them an unlikely contributor to the early Earth. But we also have three hyperactive comets — 03P/Hartley, 45P/Honda-Mrkos-Pajdušáková and 46P/Wirtanen — with the same D/H ratio as Earth’s water. That would imply that such comets could indeed have delivered water to the Earth.
Thus the interest in 46P/Wirtanen shown by European researchers at the Paris Observatory and the Sorbonne, affiliated with the French National Center for Scientific Research, who are behind the recent observations. Their analysis of the D/H ratio in this comet and other comets with known ratios shows that “…a remarkable correlation is present between the D/H ratio and hyperactivity.”
Image: The comet 46P/Wirtanen on January 3, 2019. Credit: © Nicolas Biver.
Although we seem to be seeing a clear distinction between Oort Cloud comets and Jupiter-family comets, we have to tread carefully. We also find that another Jupiter-family comet — 67P/Churyumov-Gerasimenko — has a D/H ratio three times Earth normal, while Oort cloud comet C/2014 Q2 has a ratio like Earth’s. So there’s no easy dividing line, leading the authors to add the suggestion “…that the same isotopic diversity is present in the two comet families.”
If that is the case, what makes cometary activity correlate in an inverse manner with the D/H ratio, so that the ratio in hyperactive comets decreases and approaches that of Earth water?
In a paper just published in Astronomy & Astrophysics, the researchers determined the active fraction — the fraction of nucleus surface area that it would take to produce the observed amount of water in the cometary atmospheres. They did this for all comets with a known D/H ratio. What they found was that the more a comet leans toward hyperactivity, the more its D/H ratio decreases and approaches that of the Earth. Out of this grows a hypothesis.
Hyperactive comets derive part of their water vapor from sublimation of icy grains expelled into their atmosphere, while non-hyperactive comets do not. These are processes that can show distinct D/H ratio signatures. Perhaps hyperactive comets provide a better glimpse of the ice within their nuclei, which turns out to be like that of Earth’s oceans. Those comets whose gas halo is produced only by surface ice do not show detectable ratios that are representative of what is available within the nuclei. If this is the case, then most comets have nuclei similar to terrestrial water, and comets can again be considered a major water source for Earth.
Image: Scientists at work aboard a Boeing 747 SOFIA Credit: © Nicolas Baker/IRAP/NASA/CNRS Photothèque.
We’re early in the game and other hypotheses are likewise in play. Hyperactive comets could belong to a population of ice-rich comets that formed just outside the snow line in the protoplanetary disk, indicating formation in a planetesimal. Or they could have formed in the outer regions of the solar nebula, which could also show a decrease in the D/H ratio.
But the most intriguing hypothesis remains the one suggesting that our measurements of D/H ratios are not representative of what is in the cometary nucleus. From the paper:
An alternative explanation is that the isotopic properties of water outgassed from the nucleus surface and icy grains may be different, owing to fractionation processes during the sublimation of water ice. The observed anti-correlation can be reproduced with two sources of water contributing to the measured water production rate and the active fraction: D-rich water molecules released from the nucleus and an additional source of D-poor water molecules from sublimating icy grains… Laboratory experiments on samples of pure ice show small deuterium fractionation effects… In experiments with water ice mixed with dust, the released water vapor is depleted in deuterium, explained by preferential adsorption of HDO on dust grains…
So a lot of ideas are in play, which means we need more accurate D/H measurements from both Oort comets and Jupiter-family comets. We need to find out whether hyperactive comets are simply showing us the norm; i.e., comets may all contain water very similar to what we have on Earth. And that would put comets back into play as a major contributor to Earth’s oceans.
“This is the first time we could relate the heavy-to-regular water ratio of all comets to a single factor,” notes Dominique Bockelée-Morvan, a scientist at the Paris Observatory and the French National Center for Scientific Research and second author of the paper. “We may need to rethink how we study comets because water released from the ice grains appears to be a better indicator of the overall water ratio than the water released from surface ice.”
The paper is Lis et al., “Terrestrial deuterium-to-hydrogen ratio in water in hyperactive comets,” Astronomy & Astrophysics Vol. 625, L5 (May 2019). Abstract / preprint.
by Paul Gilster | May 2, 2019 | Asteroid and Comet Deflection |
The approach of the asteroid 99942 Apophis in April of 2029 offers an opportunity to study a sizeable asteroid through both radar and optical telescopes. Marina Brozovi?, a radar scientist at the Jet Propulsion Laboratory, points out that radar studies of the object might resolve surface details that are no more than a few meters in size. No surprise, then, that Apophis is the subject of much discussion at the 2019 Planetary Defense Conference in College Park, Maryland.
This is the same conference at which NASA Administrator Jim Bridenstine warned about the critical nature of planetary defense, noting the Chelyabinsk event in 2013 that delivered some 30 times the energy of the Hiroshima bomb. NASA has contracted with SpaceX to provide launch services for its Double Asteroid Redirection Test (DART), which is expected to launch in 2021 via a SpaceX Falcon 9 and test asteroid deflection through high-speed collision.
DART’s target will be the tiny moon of an asteroid called Didymos, which it will reach by solar electric propulsion in October of 2022, when the asteroid closes to within 11 million kilometers of Earth. Bridenstine pointed out that the NASA plan to detect and characterize 90 percent of near-Earth objects measuring 140 meters in diameter and above is “only about a third of the way there,” adding that events like Chelyabinsk are expected roughly every 60 years.
So it’s heartening to see missions like the Japanese Hayabusa2 and NASA’s OSIRIS-REx probing the nature of these objects, even as we look toward the Apophis opportunity in 2029. Numerous small objects on the order of 5-10 meters have been found passing as close to the Earth as Apophis, but the latter is substantial, a 340-meter asteroid that will be widely studied as it approaches to within 31,000 kilometers of the surface. The asteroid will become a naked eye object in the night sky over the southern hemisphere on April 13, 2029.
Image: This animation shows the distance between the Apophis asteroid and Earth at the time of the asteroid’s closest approach. The blue dots are the many man-made satellites that orbit our planet, and the pink represents the International Space Station. Credit: NASA/JPL-Caltech.
You may recall that following its discovery in 2004, early calculations showed a 2.7% chance that Apophis might impact the Earth in 2029, but follow-up observations have ruled that out. Now we can take advantage of the close passage to study Apophis’ size, shape and composition. A key question: Can we use the flyby to learn more about the asteroid’s interior?
“We already know that the close encounter with Earth will change Apophis’ orbit, but our models also show the close approach could change the way this asteroid spins, and it is possible that there will be some surface changes, like small avalanches,” said Davide Farnocchia, an astronomer at JPL’s Center for Near Earth Objects Studies (CNEOS), who co-chaired the April 30 session on Apophis with Marina Brozovi?.
Apophis’ passage in 2029 will take it within the distance some spacecraft orbit the Earth, and there remains the possibility of a mission to the object. As to future collision risks, the trajectory of Apophis is well established, but gravitational interactions between asteroid and Earth make it necessary to continue to recalculate the orbit. As we assemble the catalog of potentially hazardous objects, the need for missions like DART — and others testing a range of mitigation strategies — is clear. Because if we ever do find an asteroid of this size that presents a danger to our planet, we need to know what we’re going to do.
You can watch video from the 2019 Planetary Defense Conference here.
by Paul Gilster | Apr 22, 2019 | Asteroid and Comet Deflection |
This morning’s entry resonates with Jim Benford’s recent work on objects that are co-orbital with Earth (see A SETI Search of Earth’s Co-Orbitals). You’ll recall that Benford argues for close study of co-orbitals like Cruithne (3753), a 5-kilometer object with closest approach to Earth of 0.080 AU, and 2010 TK7, which oscillates around the Sun-Earth Lagrangian point L4. A number of other such objects are known in a 1:1 orbital resonance with Earth, but they are seldom studied or even mentioned in the literature.
Calling for SETI observations at radio and optical wavelengths, as well as lighting up the objects with planetary radar, Benford gives a nod to Ronald Bracewell, who speculated that one way for an extraterrestrial intelligence to study a stellar system would be to plant a probe within it that could inform the home civilization about events there. The Earth co-orbitals are made to order for such observation, so why not give them a look with all the tools in our SETI arsenal?
Now we learn that China plans to explore the near-Earth asteroid 2016 HO3, along with a main-belt comet designated 133P. An interesting move — 2016 HO3 is the closest, most stable quasi-satellite of Earth, with a minimum distance of 0.0348 AU. Also known as Kamo?oalewa — a Hawaiian word for an oscillating object in the sky — 2016 HO3 has a minimum orbital intersection distance of 0.0348 AU (5,210,000) km, which is 13.6 times as far away as the Moon, although it seldom comes closer than about 38 lunar distances from us. The Center for Near Earth Object Studies (CNEOS) calculates this one has been in a stable orbit of our planet for about a century and will remain in its orbital pattern for centuries.
Image: Orbit of 2016 HO3. Credit: James Benford.
According to Liu Jizhong, director of the Lunar Exploration and Space Program Center of the China National Space Administration (CNSA), the current plan is to study 2016 HO3 from space before landing on it to collect samples for return to Earth. Following delivery of the sample return capsule, the probe is to proceed to comet 133P by means of gravity assists at Earth and Mars, in a mission lasting on the order of 10 years.
China is now soliciting proposals for eight types of scientific instruments for the mission among universities, research organizations and private companies both in China and abroad, according to a CNSA news release. Among the instruments needed, Liu says, are a color camera with an intermediate field of view, thermal emission spectrometer, visible and infrared imaging spectrometer, multispectral camera, detection radar, magnetometer, charged and neutral particle analyzer and dust analyzer. Quoting from the news release:
[Liu] said there might be two forms of onboard schemes. One possible scheme is to carry an independent detector on the rocket. After China’s main probe enters the orbit, the onboard detector will separate from the rocket and then perform independent tasks. Its mass should not exceed 200 kg. The other possible option is to let China’s main probe carry the onboard detector to the near-Earth asteroid or the main-belt comet and then release it. The detector could either perform independent scientific exploration or coordinate with the main probe.
If the onboard detector does not separate with the main probe, its mass should not exceed 20 kg. If the detector separates from the main probe near the asteroid, its mass should be no more than 80 kg. If it separates from the main probe near the comet, its mass should not exceed 20 kg.
The deadline for proposals is August 31, 2019, with those interested asked to contact CNSA.
Image: An animation of 2016 HO3’s orbit around Earth 2000-2300. Credit: Phoenix7777 – Own work. Data source: HORIZONS System, JPL, NASA. CC BY-SA 4.0.
This will not be China’s first experience with an asteroid mission. In December of 2012, its second lunar probe, Chang’e-2, made a close approach and flyby of asteroid 4179 Toutatis after completing its primary mission, approaching to within 3.2 kilometers and returning images. Now we have an ambitious mission to give us a close-up look at an Earth co-orbital, with comet operations to follow. We should learn a lot, for right now even the size of 2016 HO3 is not firmly established, though it is believed to be between 40 and 100 meters, depending on assumptions about its albedo, and we do know that it is a fast rotator.
by Paul Gilster | Apr 17, 2019 | Asteroid and Comet Deflection |
Do we have a second interstellar visitor, following on the heels of the controversial ‘Oumuamua? If so, the new object is of a much different nature, as was its detection. In 2014, a meteor north of Manus Island, off the coast of Papua New Guinea produced a powerful blast that, upon analysis, implied a ? 0.45m meter object massing about 500 kg. Events like this, not uncommon in our skies, are cataloged by the Center for Near Earth Object Studies (CNEOS); this one shows up as being detected at 2014-01-08 17:05:34 UTC.
Image: This gorgeous wide-angle photo from the 1997 Perseid shower captures a 20-degree-long fireball meteor and another, fainter meteor trail in a rich area of the northern summer Milky Way. Showers like these are predictable, but could some solitary fireballs mark the end of a meteor with an interstellar origin? Credit & Copyright: Rick Scott & Joe Orman.
Now the CNEOS catalog, which covers the last three decades, is useful indeed, for it takes advantage of detectors maintained by the U.S. government to analyze the sound and light of the passage of objects through the atmosphere, producing information on velocity and position at the time of impact. Harvard’s Avi Loeb, a familiar face in the media thanks to the ‘Oumuamua discussion, worked with undergraduate student Amir Siraj, whom he set to calculating. What could we learn about the prior trajectory of meteors in the catalog, homing in on the fastest?
In a paper submitted to Astrophysical Journal Letters, Loeb and Siraj note the latter’s identification of the 2014 Manus Island meteor as interstellar in origin. The paper finds no substantial gravitational interactions between the meteor and any planet other than Earth. Indeed, based on the CNEOS-reported impact speed of 44.8 km s-1, Loeb and Siraj calculate a speed of 43.8 km s-1 outside the Solar System. For the object to be bound, the observed speed at impact would have to be off by more than 45%.
This meteor, then, was on an unbound hyperbolic orbit. We can go on from here to note the object’s relation to another useful metric. For measured relative to the Local Standard of Rest, this meteor entered the Solar System with a speed of 60 kilometers per second.
The Local Standard of Rest (LSR) is produced by averaging the motion of all stars in the Sun’s neighborhood. Siraj and Loeb speculate that this velocity could indicate ejection from a planetary system, specifically from the inner regions where orbital speeds are high. The object’s speed would imply a position inside the orbit of Mercury were it to come from a star like our own, but a red dwarf like Proxima Centauri would have an ejection speed from its habitable zone in this very regime. Recall that the habitable zone around Proxima Centauri is 20 times closer to the star than the HZ in our own system. So here’s an interesting thought: “Since dwarf stars are most common, the detection of this meteor offers new prospects for ‘interstellar panspermia,’ namely the transfer of life between planets that reside in the habitable zones of different stars.”
What I’m quoting from above is an as yet unpublished summation Loeb has recently written of the paper’s findings, one that goes on to speculate about its implications. Panspermia would require a larger object because it would have to survive the fiery passage through the atmosphere, but the notion that objects could be passed from star to star in this way is interesting (and note that Loeb is not identifying a Proxima Centauri origin for this meteor, but rather pointing to possible scenarios between stars). The point is that dwarf stars are the most common in the universe, and the detection of an interstellar meteor could point to what is perhaps a common form of transfer between stars.
Beyond that, consider the possibilities in studying interstellar materials when we may find them entering our own atmosphere. Says Loeb:
Using the Earth’s atmosphere as a detector for interstellar objects offers new prospects for inferring the composition of the gases they leave behind as they burn up in the atmosphere. In the future, Astronomers may establish an alert system that triggers follow-up spectroscopic observations to an impact by a meteor of possible interstellar origin. Alert systems already exist for gravitational wave sources, gamma-ray bursts, or fast radio bursts at the edge of the Universe. Even though interstellar meteors reflect the very local Universe, they constitute a “message in a bottle” with fascinating new information about nurseries which may be very different from the Solar System. Some of them might even represent defunct technological equipment from alien civilizations, which drifted towards Earth by chance, just like a plastic bottle swept ashore on the background of natural seashells.
Thus spectroscopy of gaseous debris burning up in the Earth’s atmosphere could offer us a way to make interstellar investigations of the kind we’ve been assuming would be decades (at least) off, assuming we can make a timely identification of likely targets.
The paper is Siraj & Loeb, “Discovery of a Meteor of Interstellar Origin,” submitted to Astrophysical Journal Letters (preprint).
