Predictions about the future of technology are so often wide of the mark, yet for many of us they're irresistible. They fuel our passion for science fiction and the expansive philosophy of thinkers like Olaf Stapledon. To begin 2012, Tau Zero founder Marc Millis offers up a set of musings about where we may be going, a scenario that, given the alternatives, sounds about as upbeat as we're likely to get. by Marc Millis "If we have learned one thing from the history of invention and discovery, it is that, in the long run - and often in the short one - the most daring prophecies seem laughably conservative." ~ Arthur C. Clarke In the 'new year' spirit of looking ahead, I offer now my personal views of 'a' possible future. These predictions are based first on trend extrapolations, include intersections from other disciplines, and work in the wildcard possibility of breakthrough propulsion physics. Consider this a science fictional offering intended to provoke thought rather than a...

by Marc Millis Here is a holiday gift from Tau Zero as compiled by TZF's founding architect Marc Millis. It's part of Marc's continuing effort to find earlier references to the interstellar concepts -- many of them in fiction -- that we routinely ponder today. Some of these go back to the early 20th Century and in some cases the 19th. Compilations like this are always works in progress, as we found when putting together a list of interstellar propulsion concepts for the first chapter of the book Marc and Eric Davis edited, Frontiers of Propulsion Science, where one memory triggered another and the list kept growing. Readers are encouraged, then, to add other references to older material, as those of us who delight in prowling through old science fiction magazines have access to a mother lode of fictional precedents. I'll also mention that this post will be the last of 2011 -- as I did last week, I'll skip the Friday and Monday posts in honor of the holiday, with the next post...

I’ve been hoping to publish a dialogue between Michael Michaud and myself ever since talking to him at the 100 Year Starship Symposium and pondering his paper “Long-Term Perspectives on Interstellar Flight." Centauri Dreams readers will know Michael as the author of the must-have Contact with Alien Civilizations: Our Hopes and Fears about Encountering Extraterrestrials (Springer, 2006), and will also remember his contributions to previous articles in these pages. He has served as director of the U.S. State Department’s Office of Advanced Technology and acted as chairman of working groups at the International Academy of Astronautics that discuss SETI issues, in addition to publishing numerous articles and papers on the implications of contact. In this dialogue, I took some of the elements of his 100 Year Starship presentation and used them as the launching pad for an exploration of how to turn humanity’s attention starward. PG: Michael, I’ve been going through the paper you presented...

I normally scan through various news items for the Notes & Queries posts, but in this case I've been trying to catch up on my reading. In particular, I've been looking at books that could be useful in inspiring young people to get interested in astronomy and engineering. Here's a look at three titles that more or less fit that bill. The budding rocket scientist will love the revised Zubrin, particularly with its infectious and expansive sense of what's possible, but younger students may find their minds tweaked by the two other selections, both of which I'd recommend for a high-school audience. We never know what can launch a career, but scientists are always reminding me of particular books they read when they were kids that made all the difference. Back to the Red Planet Toward the end of Robert Zubrin's The Case for Mars (revised edition, 2011), the author looks at three possible models for getting humans to the Red Planet. It's a significant section because Zubrin recognizes the...

Be aware that the History Channel show The Universe will air an episode at 2200 EST tonight (December 13) in which Richard Obousy will discuss interstellar propulsion concepts. The air time will probably vary depending on your cable provider, so be sure to check. Richard, once project leader of the Icarus effort and still actively involved at every stage of the Icarus design, is a Texas-based physicist whose work we have often discussed in these pages. I was there for his presentation on Icarus at the recent Oak Ridge interstellar workshop and look forward to seeing him on the tube. Addendum: This episode is now available online.

If we ever achieve manned missions to the stars, one of the assumptions is that we will find planets much like Earth that we might live on and colonize. But what if the assumption is flawed? There are surely many Earth analogues in the Milky Way, but we don't know how widely they are spaced, and a near-miss isn't necessarily helpful, as both Mars and Venus attest. People like Robert Zubrin continue to advocate terraforming as a solution for Mars, and it may well happen one day, but supposing we get to another star, would we have the moral right to terraform a world with living creatures on it, even if they didn't meet our criteria for intelligence? Robert Kennedy (The Ultimax Group), working with colleagues Kenneth Roy and David Fields, has been pondering these issues and went through a possible solution at the recent Tennessee Valley Interstellar Workshop in Oak Ridge. If we stop worrying about Earth analogues, a range of interesting possibilities open up, as our own Solar System...

Les Johnson (MSFC) always says that the coolest job title he ever had in his long career at NASA was Manager of Interstellar Propulsion Research. Think about it -- if going to the stars is your passion and you have a title like that, you must feel that you have really arrived. These days he goes by the more prosaic title of Deputy Manager for the Advanced Concepts Office at Marshall Space Flight Center in Huntsville, but as the recent interstellar workshop in Oak Ridge demonstrated, he's also ranging widely on his own as conference organizer, author and science fiction aficionado. His presentation in Oak Ridge was designed to jump start the conference with a survey of the problems of interstellar flight and the long list of possible propulsion solutions. The Interstellar Conundrum The problems are clear enough. Think of the distance between the Earth and the Sun (about 150 million kilometers). That's 1 astronomical unit (AU). Shrink that distance to one foot and imagine the Solar...

I'm just back from the Tennessee Valley Interstellar Workshop in Oak Ridge, having made it through the Smokies on a rainy, chilly night that saw fog along the ridges and often down in the valleys. It was a haunting drive in ways, the low ceilings making for slow driving and the sense of being surrounded by unseen peaks and deep gorges that were always just out of view. I had hoped to meet with Les Johnson and Robert Kennedy at the latter's house for the pre-conference festivities, but arrived too late and worn out to do anything but get to sleep. The workshop was an intense, one-day affair (a good thing I got that sleep!) that started at 8:00 the next day and concluded about 10:40 that night, and judging from the discussion at the end, it will become a regular event. It was great to see old friends. Les and I last talked at Aosta two years ago. Claudio Maccone had come from Italy and would be lecturing at Oak Ridge National Laboratory on the Karhunen-Loève transform the following day...

Wednesday is a travel day for me, and one with little chance to do any posting here. I'll leave you, then, with a quotation, and get back to normal posting tomorrow. Interstellar travel is incredibly difficult, perhaps as difficult to us today as a flight to Mars would have appeared to Christopher Columbus or other would-be transoceanic navigators 500 years ago. Indeed, the ratio of the distance from Earth to Mars compared to Columbus' voyage from Spain to the Caribbean -- 80,000:1 -- is roughly the same as the ratio of the distance to Alpha Centauri compared to a trip to Mars. Thus, the key missions required to establish humanity successively as a Type I, Type II, and Type III civilization all stand in similar relation to each other, and if the 500 years since Columbus have sufficed to multiply human capabilities to the point where we now can reach for Mars, so a similar span into the future might be expected to prepare us for the leap to the stars. Actually, it should not take so...

Kelvin Long and Richard Osborne have seen to it that the British Interplanetary Society's conference on the highly influential science fiction writer and philosopher Olaf Stapledon has gone off without a hitch. Here is their report from the event, a conference evidently as rife with speculation and far-future musings as anything the author himself ever penned. by K.F. Long & R. Osborne, Symposium Chairmen During the summer the British Interplanetary Society (BIS) played host to a symposium on World Ships, possibly the first such dedicated conference ever on these grand, long-term planning concepts. However, the most recent BIS symposium is on a topic that covers eons. There was no one who thought bigger and over longer timescales than the philosopher and writer Olaf Stapledon. Once again, the BIS has organized another first in history. On the 23rd of November members and visitors gathered to discuss the philosophy and literature of Stapledon in the context of today's current space...

Science fiction has been much on my mind of late, particularly following the 100 Year Starship Symposium, where so many of the scientists I talked to mentioned novels and movies that had been influential in getting them into science. My friend Keith Cooper, editor of Astronomy Now and a fine science writer whose work I often cite in these pages, also shares an interest in SF, and it was natural enough that we fell into a conversation by email on how the genre relates to interstellar studies. Because while we would expect a natural synergy between science and science fiction, the genre's cinematic and literary treatments are often at variance with each other. Why is this, and why are some elements of the interstellar idea easier to explore in writing than in film? Here are some thoughts (and memories) about science fiction's role. Paul Gilster Keith, you and I are both science fiction readers, although I'm enough old that I grew up in the heyday of Heinlein and all those great books...

What next for the 100 Year Starship Study? NASA and the Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency will make the call, as Tau Zero founder Marc Millis told Alan Boyle in his recent interview. To talk to Boyle, Millis donned virtual garb and appeared in Second Life in robotic form, but the interview is now available as a podcast on BlogTalkRadio and iTunes. I'll send you there for the discussion in full, but do note that Boyle talked to Millis about starflight before the show and has made an edited transcript of that conversation available on Cosmic Log. The quotes I use below are from the earlier talk, but do pick up the podcast and listen to the whole thing. Where DARPA goes next is to make a decision about awarding the funds remaining from the $1 million originally put into the project. About $500,000 is available, and Centauri Dreams speculates that DARPA will be more than happy to allocate the funds and be done with them, thus removing 'starship funding' from a budget always...

Tau Zero in Second Life I have almost no experience with online virtual worlds like Second Life, but I do want to mention that Marc Millis will appear later today (Nov. 2) on the ‘Virtually Speaking’ talk show program, which can be accessed here as well as in Second Life. The focus of the interview is to be on prospects for interstellar travel, what a program like the 100-Year Starship can do, and what Tau Zero and other efforts (such as Project Icarus) are all about. The show begins at 9 PM Eastern time (0200 UTC) this evening, and may wind up being audio-only if the Second Life bit doesn’t work out. I’m sure it will, but Marc is as new to Second Life as I am, and my last experience with the medium had me wandering around in an enormous virtual house trying to find someone with whom I was supposed to be doing an online interview, and I remember being alternately intrigued and baffled by the options available to me. Old time Second Lifers will find this bizarre, I’m sure, but some of...

Nuclear rocket designs are hardly new. In fact, it was clear as early as the 1950s that conventional chemical rocketry was inefficient, and programs like Project Rover, set up to study the use of nuclear reactors to heat liquid hydrogen for propulsion, aimed at the kind of rockets that could get us beyond the Moon and on to Mars. The NERVA rocket technology (Nuclear Engine for Rocket Vehicle Application) that grew out of all this showed great promise but ran afoul of political and economic issues even as the last Apollo missions were canceled. Nor is the public wariness of nuclear methods likely to vanish soon, yet another hurdle for future ideas. But making people aware of what has done and what could be done is good practice, as Kenneth Chang does by example in his recent piece on the 100 Year Starship Symposium, which bears the optimistic title Not Such a Stretch to Reach for the Stars. In interstellar terms, propulsion is the biggest problem of all. Chang's article suggests a...

We've been talking lately about space missions designed to maximize science vs. those that are at least partly geared toward public relations. But most missions will have both components, the need for public support being woven into the fabric of our ambitions. As we try, then, to ramp up the scientific return, what can we also do to keep the public engaged and instill interest in space exploration? One answer came from Wernher von Braun's massive project for space exploration, described in a series of articles on space presented by Collier's magazine from March of 1952 to April, 1954. Let's put aside all the technical problems of the von Braun concept and concentrate on it as an incentive for space missions. Al Jackson, with whom I enjoyed dinner and several good conversations in Orlando at the 100 Year Starship Symposium, recently sent me The Ugly Spaceship and the Astounding Dream, an article he wrote for the AIAA's Horizons magazine. Al is completely upfront about the fact that...

Did the Apollo missions produce enough good science to justify their cost? It's a question Freeman Dyson has speculated on in the past, calling the missions a success because they were "conceived and honestly presented to the public as an international sporting event and not as a contribution to science." Symbolic of this is the fact that the first item to be unpacked after each landing was the television camera that relayed mission imagery back to Earth. Apollo inevitably labored under the camera's gaze, but no great scientific discoveries came from it, and the entertainment emphasis inevitably detracted from the missions' scientific objectives. Image: Buzz Aldrin leaves the lunar lander in this photo snapped by Neil Armstrong. What might Apollo have been if it had been conceived from the start to produce good science? Imagine this: Our six Apollo landings put two astronauts each on the surface for a period of several days. At their disposal were two tons of supplies and equipment....

I've got an out of town speaking gig today and am pressed for time, so this may be a good occasion for something I needed to do anyway for the record, which is to highlight the papers given by Tau Zero Foundation and Project Icarus people at the recent 100 Year Starship Symposium. Most of the following were delivered as individual talks, although some were presented in panels. If you're interested in reading the papers each author prepared for the conference, many (but not all, evidently) are to be published in the Journal of the British Interplanetary Society. I'll deliver publishing details when they become available. Here are the presentations of those associated with Tau Zero: E. Davis, "Faster-Than-Light Space Warps, Status and Next Steps" K. Denning, "Inertia of Past Futures" (anthropology) P. Gilster, "The Interstellar Vision: Principles and Practice" G. Landis, "Plasma Shield for an Interstellar Vehicle" C. Maccone, "Sun Focus Comes First, Interstellar Comes Second (Mission...

I'm just back from the 100 Year Starship Symposium. The thoughts below were written yesterday evening (the 2nd), just after the event ended. It's a lovely evening here in Orlando, one I'm enjoying while sitting out in front of the Hilton waiting for my taxi. I got a chuckle out of the audience at my talk at the 100 Year Starship Symposium when I mentioned something that is completely true: I'm actually a very retro kind of guy. Sure, starships are a passion, but I also restore old fountain pens, love film noir, and as I told the audience, chose an overnight sleeper train to come to Florida in rather than an aircraft. They enjoyed the observation, probably because we're all an odd mix of personally defined and often contradictory impulses. But as I soak up this gorgeous Florida evening, I'm feeling a profound singleness of purpose. To begin with, it's clear to me that writing about the starship conference won't be a matter of a single Centauri Dreams entry but rather a series of...

Arrived yesterday afternoon at the Orlando Hilton for the 100 Year Starship Symposium. I'll try to get updates out on my Twitter feed @centauri_dreams when possible. The WiFi here has been mostly good but it did go down this morning for a time, so bear with me.